Email
Print
Comments
ShareSigns of a Democratic Rebound?
Signs of a Democratic Rebound?
It's always dangerous to see a handful of polls and start talking about a trend. At the same time, most trends start with a few polls that look like they might be outliers, but move in the same direction at the same time. And so it's worth noting that over the weekend, there were a few polls moving in the same direction showing good news for Democrats. On the other hand, there were still plenty of polls showing bad news for Democrats, so we must be cautious interpreting these data; we really just see "green shoots" for Democrats amid what had previously been uniformly bad polling news.
The Good News For Democrats
Connecticut Senate - Many race watchers had pegged the Connecticut Senate race as an "upset special." After all, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal had committed what looked a self-inflicted wound when it was discovered that he had exaggerated his military service. Republican Linda McMahon was far from an ideal candidate, but she was the consummate political outsider in an outsider year, and she had infinite funds to spend on New York media. Rasmussen Reports showed a steadily tightening race, and Democrats became increasingly concerned.
So it had to come as a bit of a relief to Democrats when Rasmussen Reports showed Blumenthal back over 50 percent, and expanding his lead from 7 points to 9 points. He leads 53 percent to 44 percent. This could be statistical noise, but it also could be a signal that Blumenthal has bottomed out, and that McMahon has peaked after solidifying the 44 percent of voters that cast ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Blumenthal leads by 9.5 points in the RCP Average.
South Dakota At Large - Herseth Sandlin was one of those members that observers were increasingly writing off for dead. She was consistently in the low forties in polling and her opponent, Kristi Noem, was above 50 percent. That's a kiss of death for an incumbent. But Rasmussen Report's latest polling shows those numbers reversing now, with Herseth Sandlin at 47 percent and Noem at 45 percent. This comes as Herseth Sandlin starts her ad buy, and as Noem has come under fire for her numerous speeding tickets (the last occupant of the seat resigned after a manslaughter conviction for killing someone while driving). There is a special importance here, because this has been a major Democratic talking point: that once Republicans' records come under scrutiny, Democrats will rebound.
Nevada 3rd District - Likewise, Dina Titus (abetted by outside groups) has begun her ad barrage against her Republican opponent, Joe Heck. She's increased her lead to 47/43, from 43/42. She's still under 50 percent, and she'd like to see a bigger return on a one million dollar investment. But being an incumbent at 47 percent is much better than being one at 43 percent.
Iowa 3rd District - Leonard Boswell likewise looked like a dead man walking, having trailed his GOP opponent by double digits in several polls. Now, an independent polling firm, Voter/Consumer Research (commissioned by a conservative group), shows the Congressman leading his GOP opponent 48 percent to 39 percent. This comes as reports surfaced that the GOP'er, Brad Zaun, had shown up outside an ex-girlfriend's house in the middle of the night and shouted obscenities at her and her new boyfriend. A word of caution: This was a poll of 300 adults; still, it is somewhat inconsistent with the earlier likely voter polls showing Zaun up by ten points and above 50 percent. There was a subsample of "certain-to-vote" voters that showed a 47.3-41.3 percent Boswell lead, but the margin of error here was likely huge.
Florida Governor - Sunshine/VSS polled the Florida Governor's race, and finds Democrat Alex Sink leading Republican Rick Scott by two points, 44 to 42 percent. This is good news for Sink, because Sunshine/VSS also polled the Florida Senate race, and found Marco Rubio leading that three-way race by a fourteen point margin, the highest margin of any recent pollster. If we assume that this sample is on the high end for Republicans, then this confirms Sink's lead. She leads by 4.2 in the RCP Average.
Nevada Senate - Harry Reid's resurrection from the dead continues. Mason Dixon shows him doubling his lead over Republican Sharron Angle to two points. Okay, I'm being somewhat facetious, but the fact that Rasmussen Reports showed a 5-point swing last week suggests that Reid really could once again be opening this race up. He leads by 2.7 points in the RCP Average.
Delaware GOP Primary - Speaking of Sharron Angle, PPP has come out with a shocker of a poll showing Delaware Congressman Mike Castle trailing perennial candidate Christine O'Donnell 47 percent to 44 percent. Even if the sample is off by a bit - primaries are very difficult to poll - this confirms that this race has tightened substantially.
Castle isn't the shoo-in many imagine, as he's a nine-term Congressman below 50 percent in general election polling. But O'Donnell would probably lose by the typical 60-40 margin by which Republicans traditionally lose in Delaware. Let's be clear: O'Donnell is no Joe Miller or Ken Buck, who both have compelling stories (respectively, bronze star-winning Yale Law Grad and local DA who went to Princeton); she isn't even Sharron Angle. And Delaware (Obama 62 percent) certainly isn't Alaska (Obama 38 percent), Colorado (Obama 54 percent), or Nevada (Obama 55 percent).
In the bigger picture, this could be interpreted as a giant "Not Welcome" sign to moderates in the GOP; how will the party ever recruit an electable candidate in Delaware again? In the long term, this is a huge boost for the Democrats, who would rather have senators like Chris Coons and Tom Allen voting with them 100 percent of the time than Republicans like Mike Castle and Susan Collins voting with them a little less than 50 percent of the time. An O'Donnell win would probably secure the Senate for Democrats. This is the only independent polling of the race, but the lack of responsive polling from the Castle campaign is notable.
New Hampshire GOP Primary - Likewise, in New Hampshire, the least electable candidate is gaining traction. Conservative Ovide Lamontagne, who in 1996 became the first Republican in almost 20 years to lose a governor's race in the Granite State, is surging. Lamontagne is an experienced "RINO" hunter, having defeated moderately conservative Republican Bill Zeliff for the nomination in 1996. He's closing the gap with moderately conservative Kelly Ayotte, and trails by only 7 points. The good news for Ayotte is that it is a four way race, splitting 37-30-13-12, meaning that only 8 percent of voters are undecided. But if conservatives abandon Bender (the other conservative) en masse, she could lose this one. Paul Hodes would then find himself in a much more competitive position, although the state has elected movement conservatives in recent history (see Bob Smith), so the situation wouldn't be as dire for Republicans here as in Delaware.
Oklahoma 2nd District - Dan Boren had shown some real weakness in earlier PPP polling, coming in right around 50 percent. This was terrible news for Democrats, suggesting that even very conservative Democrats could be in trouble this time around. He recently released a poll showing him leading his GOP opponent 65 percent to 31 percent. Even accounting for the fact that this is a campaign poll, it suggests that he is increasingly out of the woods.
Bad News for Democrats
Still, there was plenty of bad news for Democrats. Again, things aren't looking good for Democrats. It's just that after weeks of universally bad news, there's finally some good news, which could turn out to be a leading indicator.
North Carolina Senate -- Richard Burr finally hit the airwaves, and it seems to be moving the numbers a bit toward what we'd normally expect to see in North Carolina in a year like this. According to Rasmussen Reports, he leads Elaine Marshall 54 percent to 38 percent, which is an improvement from his previous 49-40 lead. Burr leads by 9.5 points in the RCP Average.
Oregon Governor - Rasmussen Reports shows former Governor John Kitzhaber trailing former NBA basketball player (and Yale graduate) Chris Dudley, 49 percent to 44 percent. The former governor seems stuck at 45 percent in the polls, and Dudley is inching toward 50 percent. He leads by 2.6 points in the RCP Average.
Michigan Governor - The Detroit News confirms an earlier Mitchell Research poll, and finds venture capitalist Rick Snyder leading Lansing mayor Virg Bernero 56 percent to 36 percent. Snyder leads by 20.3 percent in the RCP Average. This is starting to look ugly for Democrats. If Snyder wins by this margin, the Republican will likely gain control of the legislature, and therefore get to pick the House seat that is eliminated in redistricting.
Iowa 1st and 2nd Districts - The Voter/Consumer Research poll also showed some trouble for Democrats in the 1st and 2nd Districts. In Iowa's 1st District, Bruce Braley leads attorney Ben Lange 50 percent to 39 percent. In Iowa 2nd District, Dave Loebsack leads '08 opponent Marianette Miller-Meeks 47 percent to 39 percent. The fact that these two are at or below 50 percent in polls of adults, even in Democratic-leaning districts, should be worrisome for Democrats. The "certain-to-vote" subsample (again, likely sporting a massive error margin), showed Braley ahead 47.1 percent to 42.1 percent, while Loebsack led 47.7 percent to 41 percent in this subsample.
Pennsylvania 10th District - Chris Carney (D) trails US Attorney Tom Marino 52 percent to 38 percent in this heavily Republican (McCain 54%) district in northeastern Pennsylvania. The poll was taken by "Municipoll," of 511 LVs. I've never heard of this company, but the results aren't inconsistent with some other polling we've seen.
Pennsylvania 8th District - Patrick Murphy (D) upset Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in one of the election-night surprises in 2006. This year, Fitzpatrick is back for the rematch. Murphy released a poll showing him leading Fitzpatrick 47 percent to 43 percent. This isn't very good news for Murphy, since this probably represents his best-case scenario, and he's still below 50 percent.
North Carolina 7th District - Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies released a poll of North Carolina's 7th District (Wilmington), showing Republican Ilario Pantano trailing Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre by only 45 percent to 39 percent. Of course, this is a campaign poll from the Republican, so McIntyre is probably hovering close to 50 percent in reality. But McIntyre hasn't received less than 70 percent of the vote since being elected in 1996 and hasn't caused any huge controversy. So even if he is going to win (we still think that is likely), it is an ominous sign for other Democrats with more controversial records.
Neutral News For Democrats
Oregon Senate - In a sense, it is good news for Democrats that Ron Wyden is still above 50 percent according to Rasmussen Reports, 53 percent to 35 percent. On the other hand, Wyden, a non-controversial incumbent from a blue-leaning state, is supposed to win. He's holding steady, but I'm sure he'd like to see a little more distance between himself and the 50 percent mark.
South Dakota Governor - Republicans haven't lost this seat since the 1970s, and they aren't going to lose it this year. Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard (no, my "a" key isn't stuck) leads Scott Heidepriem 57 percent to 28 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.
Nevada Governor - Mason-Dixon finds Brian Sandoval in the driver's seat, leading Rory Reid 52 percent to 36 percent. But even this represents a tightening from the 22-point Sandoval lead we saw a few weeks ago. Sandoval leads by 17 points in the RCP Average.
| Sponsored Links | Related Articles
|
| Search by Race |