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ShareOregon Governor - Dudley vs. Kitzhaber
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Kitzhaber (D) | Dudley (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 49.2 | 48.1 | Kitzhaber +1.1 |
| RCP Average | 10/23 - 10/31 | -- | 46.7 | 44.3 | Kitzhaber +2.4 | Portland Tribune | 10/30 - 10/31 | 1000 LV | 46 | 43 | Kitzhaber +3 | SurveyUSA | 10/23 - 10/28 | 580 LV | 48 | 41 | Kitzhaber +7 | Rasmussen Reports | 10/25 - 10/25 | 750 LV | 46 | 49 | Dudley +3 |
See All Oregon Governor - Dudley vs. Kitzhaber Polling Data
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Race Analysis
10/21/10 -- The polls continue to now show Kitzhaber with a lead, albeit a very narrow one.
10/11/10 -- Rasmussen shows some movement back toward Kitzhaber, and gives him the first lead of the cycle (we should take the Riley Research poll showing 21 percent of the voters undecided with an appropriate grain of salt). We'll have to wait and see if someone else duplicates the result, but the Republicans might continue the second longest gubernatorial dry spell in the nation.
----------Race Preview---------
Oregon was admitted to the Union as a free state. Most of the state is either mountainous or desert, and most of the state’s population is wedged into the Willamette Valley, between the Coastal Range and the Cascade Mountains. The state was Republican throughout its first 80 years, but it was in the progressive Republican camp. Once progressives became a permanent part of the Democratic coalition, the state moved toward the Democrats.
The state is the home to the longest Republican gubernatorial losing streak in the country. From 1974 through the present, Republicans have only won the governorship once; Victor Atiyeh won in 1978 and again in 1982.
This year could end the streak. Oregon is not so far to the left that a Republican cannot win here – it was a close state in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential races. The current governor, Ted Kulongoski, is deeply unpopular, and has been for most of his term. To succeed him, Democrats have turned back to John Kitzhaber, who occupied the Governor’s mansion from 1994 until 2002. Republicans have nominated former NBA player Chris Dudley, a shot-blocker extraordinaire who also holds the NBA record for most consecutive missed free throws.
Dudley has led Kitzhaber in most of the early polls, although the margins have been small. There is obviously plenty of time for the dynamics of this race to change, and the Democratic nature of the state may eventually assert itself.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Kitzhaber (D) | Dudley (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 49.2 | 48.1 | Kitzhaber +1.1 |
| RCP Average | 10/23 - 10/31 | -- | 46.7 | 44.3 | Kitzhaber +2.4 |
| Portland Tribune | 10/30 - 10/31 | 1000 LV | 46 | 43 | Kitzhaber +3 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/23 - 10/28 | 580 LV | 48 | 41 | Kitzhaber +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/25 - 10/25 | 750 LV | 46 | 49 | Dudley +3 |
| Portland Tribune | 10/24 - 10/25 | 500 LV | 43 | 46 | Dudley +3 |
| The Oregonian/Elway | 10/18 - 10/19 | 500 LV | 45 | 44 | Kitzhaber +1 |
| Daily Kos/PPP (D) | 10/16 - 10/17 | 1229 LV | 48 | 47 | Kitzhaber +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/12 - 10/14 | 652 LV | 46 | 45 | Kitzhaber +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/10 - 10/10 | 750 LV | 48 | 46 | Kitzhaber +2 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/12 - 9/14 | 562 LV | 43 | 49 | Dudley +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/8 - 9/8 | 750 LV | 44 | 49 | Dudley +5 |
| Riley Research | 8/31 - 9/9 | 392 LV | 40 | 39 | Kitzhaber +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/22 - 8/22 | 750 LV | 45 | 49 | Dudley +4 |
| SurveyUSA | 7/25 - 7/27 | 567 LV | 44 | 46 | Dudley +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/26 - 7/26 | 750 LV | 44 | 47 | Dudley +3 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 6/28 - 6/28 | 963 LV | 40 | 41 | Dudley +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/17 - 6/17 | 500 LV | 45 | 47 | Dudley +2 |
| SurveyUSA | 6/7 - 6/9 | 566 LV | 40 | 47 | Dudley +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/20 - 5/20 | 500 LV | 44 | 45 | Dudley +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/26 - 4/26 | 500 LV | 41 | 41 | Tie |
| Moore Info. (R) | 2/20 - 2/21 | 500 LV | 45 | 33 | Kitzhaber +12 |
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