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ShareSouth Dakota At-Large - Noem vs. Herseth Sandlin
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Noem (R) | Herseth Sandlin (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 48.1 | 45.9 | Noem +2.2 |
| Argus Leader/KELO/Mason-Dixon | 10/20 - 10/21 | 800 LV | 45 | 43 | Noem +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/20 - 10/20 | 500 LV | 49 | 44 | Noem +5 |
| The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D) | 10/16 - 10/19 | 399 LV | 42 | 45 | Herseth Sandlin +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/4 - 10/4 | 500 LV | 47 | 44 | Noem +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/8 - 9/8 | 500 LV | 45 | 47 | Herseth Sandlin +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/3 - 8/3 | 500 LV | 51 | 42 | Noem +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/6 - 7/6 | 500 LV | 49 | 44 | Noem +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/10 - 6/10 | 500 LV | 53 | 41 | Noem +12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/21 - 4/21 | 500 LV | 35 | 50 | Herseth Sandlin +15 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/25 - 3/25 | 500 LV | 35 | 46 | Herseth Sandlin +11 |
Race Analysis
One of the earliest signs that 2010 was going to be a rough year was the declining fortunes of Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. She was elected to the House to represent this solidly Republican state in a 2004 special election, after Representative Bill Janklow was convicted of manslaughter after causing an automobile accident. In the House, Herseth compiled a moderate-to-conservative voting record, opposing the President’s health care bill and numerous other administration initiatives.
Herseth Sandlin will face state legislator Kristi Noem. Noem, who was probably the most conservative candidate to emerge from the Republican primary, has led Herseth Sandlin in a number of polls, and was above 50 percent in most polling over the summer. Herseth Sandlin is something of the proverbial canary in the coal mine for Democrats – if she can’t hold on, then a number of Democrats with moderate voting records in conservative districts are likely to find themselves in big, big trouble this November.
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Herseth Sandlin (D) 68%, Lien (R) 32% | 2008: McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 45% | ||
| 2006: Herseth Sandlin (D) 69%, Graf (R) 29% | 2004: Bush (R) 60%, Kerry (D) 38% | ||
| 2004: Herseth Sandlin (D) 53%, Diedrich (R) 46% | 2000: Bush (R) 60%, Gore (D) 38% |
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