RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day 0 Days to Election
Polls Underestimated

Adjusted 11/8
Poll Average

Adjusted 11/8
Poll Average

Adjusted 11/8
Poll Average

Adjusted 11/8
Poll Average

RCP Projection
November 8

RCP Projection
November 8

RCP Projection
November 8

RCP Projection
November 8
State RCP Average 2020 2018 2016 Polls Under-
estimated
Nevada Nevada Nevada NV Lombardo +2.8 Lombardo +2.8 Lombardo +2.8 Lombardo +2.8 Biden +2.4 D +2.4 D +2.4 Laxalt +0.6 R +0.6 R +0.6 Trump +0.8 R +0.8 R +0.8 Dem 2.7 Lombardo +0.1 Lombardo +0.1 Lombardo +0.1 Lombardo +0.1 GOP Pick Up
Arizona Arizona Arizona AZ Lake +3.5 Lake +3.5 Lake +3.5 Lake +3.5 Kelly +5.7 D +5.7 D +5.7 Ducey +16.3 R +16.3 R +16.3 Trump +4.0 R +4.0 R +4.0 GOP 0.5 Lake +4.0 Lake +4.0 Lake +4.0 Lake +4.0 GOP Hold
Michigan Michigan Michigan MI Whitmer +1.0 Whitmer +1.0 Whitmer +1.0 Whitmer +1.0 Biden +4.2 D +4.2 D +4.2 Whitmer +10.0 D +10.0 D +10.0 Clinton +3.4 D +3.4 D +3.4 GOP 2.2 Dixon +1.2 Dixon +1.2 Dixon +1.2 Dixon +1.2 GOP Pick Up
Minnesota Minnesota Minn. MN Walz +4.3 Walz +4.3 Walz +4.3 Walz +4.3 Biden +4.3 D +4.3 D +4.3 Walz +7.0 D +7.0 D +7.0 Clinton +6.0 D +6.0 D +6.0 Dem 1.0 Walz +5.3 Walz +5.3 Walz +5.3 Walz +5.3 Dem Hold
Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin WI Michels +0.6 Michels +0.6 Michels +0.6 Michels +0.6 Biden +6.7 D +6.7 D +6.7 Evers +2.5 D +2.5 D +2.5 Clinton +6.5 D +6.5 D +6.5 GOP 4.8 Michels +5.4 Michels +5.4 Michels +5.4 Michels +5.4 GOP Pick Up
Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Penn. PA Shapiro +8.3 Shapiro +8.3 Shapiro +8.3 Shapiro +8.3 Biden +1.2 D +1.2 D +1.2 Wolf +19.6 D +19.6 D +19.6 Clinton +1.9 D +1.9 D +1.9 GOP 1.7 Shapiro +6.6 Shapiro +6.6 Shapiro +6.6 Shapiro +6.6 Dem Hold
Georgia Georgia Georgia GA Kemp +8.3 Kemp +8.3 Kemp +8.3 Kemp +8.3 Trump +1.0 R +1.0 R +1.0 Kemp +3.0 R +3.0 R +3.0 Trump +4.8 R +4.8 R +4.8 Dem 0.9 Kemp +7.4 Kemp +7.4 Kemp +7.4 Kemp +7.4 GOP Hold
Florida Florida Florida FL DeSantis +12.2 DeSantis +12.2 DeSantis +12.2 DeSantis +12.2 Biden +0.9 D +0.9 D +0.9 Gillum +3.6 D +3.6 D +3.6 Trump +0.2 R +0.2 R +0.2 GOP 3.1 DeSantis +15.3 DeSantis +15.3 DeSantis +15.3 DeSantis +15.3 GOP Hold