But one of the Democrats who fits that description, Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia's 11th Congressional District, told RCP in an interview that using the gubernatorial results on Tuesday to determine vulnerability in the 2010 midterm elections makes no sense, and that he's not reading much into them.

"Prudence dictates you don't overanalyze one election," Connolly told RealClearPolitics.

However, none of the four Democrats in Virginia whose congressional districts were won by the Republican gubernatorial nominee have said which way they will vote tomorrow night. While all four are on record professing skepticism of the House reform bill well before Tuesday, any 'No' votes will likely be construed as a political decision.

Calling his colleagues "principled individuals," Connolly says "they're not going to be somehow spooked by one election cycle."

Wednesday morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee singled out the four Virginia Dems who could be feeling the heat after Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) won their districts -- Reps. Rick Boucher, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello and Connolly. The latter three are freshmen serving in districts long held by Republicans, and John McCain's largest vote percentage came in the 14-term Boucher's 9th District.

"Turn the clock back," said Connolly, referring to Virginia Democrats' success at the House, Senate and presidential level in 2008. "If I had said Bob McDonnell was in trouble a year ago, how would my comment look now?"

"Everything ultimately hinges on the economy" improving, he said. "We've got a whole year for that to happen."

Of the four, Connolly may have the least to worry about, even though his Northern Virginia district was represented by Republican Tom Davis for 14 of its 17-year existence. With Davis retiring last year, Connolly won 55 percent against businessman Keith Fimian; President Obama won 57 percent there -- his third largest percentage in the state.

McDonnell's 55 percent take in the 11th District Tuesday was his smallest of the four Democratic districts he won. Fimian, who outspent Connolly last year, is taking on the congressman again in 2010.

Republicans, including Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour, quickly began comparing this year's gubernatorial results in New Jersey and Virginia to 1993, when Republicans also swept the two elections and went on to win back Congress the following year.

Connolly says that to ensure nothing like that happens again, Democrats need to "prove we can govern. That's why passing health care reform is so important."

According to his spokesman, as of this afternoon Connolly is leaning toward voting for the health care reform bill that will likely come up for a vote Saturday night, but so far he's alone in that category. Jessica Barba, Perriello's spokesman, told RCP this afternoon that the congressman is still undecided, while spokesman Clark Pettig confirms Nye has not yet announced his decision. Boucher did not return a request for comment.

That may have been a bit premature, as it appears now that Christine O'Donnell, the party's nominee in 2008 against Biden, plans to run an aggressive race from the right against the longtime Congressman. This Saturday, O'Donnell will make her first speech of the campaign at a Delaware Tea Party Rally in Dover. From a campaign release:

Christine will join participants to stand in opposition to the Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda that seeks to increase government authority and decrease individual freedom and liberty.

Committed to promoting conservative Reagan principles, Christine will address the rally and express her opposition to a government takeover of health care, wasteful spending, and other anti-free-enterprise efforts by Washington beltway politicians, and why 2010 holds great promise in turning the tide in Congress.

In a separate op-ed in a local paper, O'Donnell suggests the New York-23 race emboldens her effort, taking a shot at the moderate Castle:

The economy will also be part of the discussion today, as unemployment increased again to 10.2 percent in October -- the highest since April 1983.

Today after his morning briefings, President Obama signs the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009. Later he'll visit Walter Reed Army Medical Center, a stop added in the wake of yesterday's killings in Fort Hood, Texas. Back at the White House, Obama will then welcome Congressman-Elect Bill Owens to the Oval Office. Tomorrow he will meet with House Democrats on the Hill to push for their support on the impending health care reform vote.

And it will be like old times in Des Moines this weekend, with a 2012 double feature this weekend. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty speaks at an Iowa GOP dinner on Saturday. Mike Huckabee visits West Des Moines and two other cities promoting his new Christmas book.

The senators, some of whom are reportedly hosting a fundraiser for her in Washington later this month, include the GOP's 2008 presidential nominee and the Senate's minority leader and whip: John McCain (Ariz.), Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Jon Kyl (Ariz.), Tom Coburn (Okla.), Susan Collins (Maine), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Olympia Snowe (Maine).

Fiorina's endorsement by Coburn -- a celebrated conservative for his demand for fiscal discipline in Congress -- particularly stands out, and perhaps could be a bridge Fiorina needs to the conservative wing of her party.

"One of Carly's greatest strengths is that she has never served in elected office," Coburn said, according to a press release from the Fiorina campaign. "Carly's common sense and fiscal conservatism will be a welcome addition to the United State Senate."

However, some grassroots conservatives around the country have already begun supporting California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, Fiorina's more-conservative primary opponent. DeVore, in an interview with RealClearPolitics, said the opinions of elected officials from inside the Beltway will hardly make a difference in the race.

"It's not surprising at all to me that the Republican establishment would come in behind her," said DeVore, who claims the support of 60 percent of Republican state office holders. "The only surprise I have is that it wasn't more than eight."

DeVore said he represents a "principled Republicanism," unlike some of the senators who supported Fiorina.

Although Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the committee would not spend money in contested Republican primaries, it is promoting fundraisers for select candidates, including Fiorina and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Also, the Associated Press reported today that the NRSC is hosting a fundraiser for an Arkansas Senate candidate, State Sen. Gilbert Baker, who has six primary opponents.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) endorsed DeVore earlier this week, adding to his activity in contested primaries. DeMint was also an early endorser of Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race. Rubio is taking on Crist, who was endorsed by the NRSC and Senate leadership minutes after officially entering the race.

The primary race has already become reminiscent of one that ended badly for the party this week. Republicans suffered an awkward defeat Tuesday in the special election for New York's 23rd District, where the national party initially supported the Republican nominee while conservatives from around the country backed Doug Hoffman, who was running on the Conservative Party line.

The Club for Growth, which offered considerable financial assistance to Hoffman, has not decided whether it will endorse a candidate in the California Senate race, or whom it would endorse if it does. The organization, which demands fiscal conservatism in its candidates, has already announced it will not be backing other establishment-supported Senate candidates, including Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.).

Calling Democrats' efforts to pass health care reform "gangster government at its worst," Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) invited people from all over the country to the Capitol today, to "tell their Representatives to vote no to a government take-over of one-fifth of our economy." Thousands of people showed up to the West Front of the Capitol as House GOP leaders, Bachmann, actor Jon Voight, and radio host Mark Levin bashed President Obama and congressional Democrats.

The event used populist themes in its disapproval of reform, as the word "freedom" was uttered countless times by speakers. Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) called the Dems' bill "the greatest threat to freedom that I've seen in my 19 years in Congress."

"I'm going to stand with you and all freedom-loving Americans against this bill," he continued.

Asked at a press conference later in the day about some racist signs that turned up in the crowd, Boehner said he didn't see any. Asked if he worried that the signs that appeared on the Capitol grounds today might show that the GOP is out of the mainstream, Boehner said it was just the opposite.

"I think Republicans are standing with the mainstream in opposition to Pelosi-care," he said.

Earlier in the day, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) said she was excited for Democrats' special election victories Tuesday in California and New York, not only because it gave her two more votes for health care reform, but because "health care was the issue" in both races. She did not mention the Democrats' losses in the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races.

Asked about Pelosi's comments, Boehner laughed and said he disagreed with her analysis of the races. As evidence, he pointed to the election results in New York's 23rd District, where 46 percent voted for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and 5 percent voted for GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, who left the race days before the election.

"A majority of the people who voted in that election in New York on Tuesday night voted against the Obama-Pelosi agenda here in Washington," he said. "And so they can spin it any way they want, the leaders can, but let me tell you what: Their members saw what happened Tuesday night."

Speaker Pelosi and her leadership team are currently whipping votes on health care, as they prepare for a Saturday vote. In the meantime, House Republicans are holding what they're calling a health care "House Call" on the West front steps of the Capitol today at noon. GOP leadership will speak, with most of the conference standing on the steps behind them.

On the House floor today, the chamber will vote on the Senate-altered Unemployment Compensation Extension Act and begin consideration of the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Act of 2009. The Senate will debate and move closer to a vote on the Commerce, Justice, Science Appropriations bill.

Believe it or not, the first primary election of 2010 is just 90 days away, in Illinois. Given the debate over New York-23 and its implications for the GOP, that may make Mark Kirk the latest test case in just how moderate or conservative a Republican can be to win a primary and, ultimately, the election. Today, Chris Cillizza reports that the Senate hopeful is appealing for Sarah Palin's endorsement. Her support for Doug Hoffman spurred Dede Scozzafava out of the race, but ultimately could not keep the seat from going to a Democrat. Kirk seems convinced that he needs her backing to win on February 2, however, before he can think about November.

A more significant problem for the GOP, however, comes as a result of NRSC chair John Cornyn's announcement today that the committee would not commit any resources in contested primaries. A day after tough Democratic losses, it had to feel like Christmas come early at the DSCC as they mapped out how this could change the entire playing field.

One could make the case that the GOP has primaries or the threats of primaries in every key Senate race except for Delaware. And now, would-be challengers who may have been holding off for fear of the NRSC's organizational might have seen a major roadblock taken away. Cornyn's announcement has local reporters across the country checking in with these candidates as well as the increasingly nervous Washington-preferred challengers (one, Carly Fiorina, announced her candidacy just today). And Democratic state committees and some candidates in these states have cranked out press releases celebrating the decision.

The calendar comes into play here, too, because some of the GOP's most contested primaries take place later in the calendar year, meaning that any major battle, particularly one expected in Florida, and others in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Connecticut, will produce a nominee with less time to recover before a general election campaign.

After the jump, a chronological clip-and-save of the 2010 primary season.

In an op-ed in the Orange County Register today, Fiorina said her motivation to enter the race is that "the decisions made by the Senate impact every family and every business, of any size, in America."

"Our most pressing problems today are too few jobs for Americans and too much spending in Washington," Fiorina wrote. "As California's senator, economic recovery and fiscal accountability will be my priorities."

Fiorina opened her op-ed with an explanation of her spotty voting record, which has dogged her campaign even before she officially entered the race. The San Francisco Chronicle reported in June that Fiorina voted in just one-in-four local, state and national elections in the Bay Area since 2000.

"Admittedly, I have not always been engaged in the electoral process, and I should have been," writes Fiorina, who also discussed her voting record, along with taxes and abortion, in an interview with a California Republican blog.

Although Fiorina will be well-funded, she does not have a clear path to the general election. DeVore, who will challenge her on conservative principles, was endorsed yesterday by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). This is DeMint's latest foray into a 2010 Senate GOP primary -- he also endorsed Marco Rubio in Florida, instead of party favorite Gov. Charlie Crist.

However, Fiorina will also get be getting some help from the party establishment, as The Hill reports she will attend a Washington fundraiser hosted by a number of senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and McCain.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee isn't waiting for the primary to conclude to begin knocking Fiorina's credentials. In a statement released this morning, DSCC spokesman Eric Schultz indicates which angle the committee will take against her.

"The hallmark of Carly Fiorina's resume is her tenure at Hewlett-Packard where she laid-off 28,000 Americans while shipping jobs overseas - just before taking a $21 million golden parachute," said Schultz. "Given that record, the United States Senate is the last place Carly Fiorina should go next."

As pundits debate what last night's elections mean for the future of his administration, President Obama will leave the Beltway bubble and travel to Wisconsin for an event focused on education. On the anniversary of his election, Obama also participates in a credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors, and tonight will host an event celebrating classical music back at the White House.

In Congress, the House takes up the Expedited CARD Reform for Consumers Act of 2009, while the Senate resumes consideration of the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2009.

Mike is in New Jersey and I'm in Virginia.

Joined by national labor leaders, Corzine specifically brought up the fight over the Employee Free Choice Act, and said: "We want to send a message to America that in the most labor friendly state in America, we're returning the governor no matter how tough times are."

Several hundred workers attended the lunch-time rally, some greeting him by asking if he was "Fired up," an Obama campaign credo. The governor, saying this was "the last election I run in," said the union's GOTV efforts were critical not just for his future but the president's.

"Our president is working for a national health care program," he said. "He needs our help so that he can tell the Congress there is no lack of support out in the countryside. We stand with our president."

He surprised even some in the union hall with some salty language, saying Obama has already begun to "stop that trickle-down economic stuff that got us into this damn mess from the Bush people."

"We will have things going in the right direction," he said.

Corzine then went to a local diner, where actor Abe Vigoda also made an appearance.

"I gotta feeling, I gotta feeling, I gotta feeling / that tonight's gonna be a good night, that tonight's gonna be a good night, that tonight's gonna be a good good night / I gotta feeling."

And the Deeds campaign just released another turnout report from campaign manager Joe Abbey:

"Our afternoon reports have shown that Charlottesville continues to be a bright spot for Deeds turnout today, with numbers running way ahead of targets. Democratic turnout has surged in Roanoke over the past several hours and we are hitting our targets in Democratic precincts in that market. And turnout continue to look strong in key precincts in Northern Virginia."

Facing daunting polling numbers over the past month, Deeds advisers have continued to say that if they can just get a few hundred thousand Obama surge voters out to the polls they can win this thing. Easier said than done, of course, but it's their one hope and something they pushed pretty hard for the last few days with door knocks and phone banking.

The lack of an energized base in Northern Virginia, as well as the big question mark that is those Obama voters around the state, especially in Hampton Roads, make predicting Deeds' final tally pretty tough.

Hoping for positive, midday media reports, the Deeds campaign released a statement just before 1 p.m. (while this reporter was driving down from D.C.) stating that turnout was looking good in essential counties for statewide Democratic candidates.

"We are seeing encouraging numbers in key parts of the state. Northern and Central Virginia in particular look strong," said Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey. "The Charlottesville area, which includes areas represented by Creigh Deeds in the state Senate is particularly strong and 10 percent of voters in key Democratic precincts had already voted by 10 AM. Meanwhile, voters in the populous and Democratic precincts of Alexandria and Arlington have been voting at rates well above the average in other parts of the Commonwealth."

Deeds currently trails by 13.4 points in the polls and recent fundraising data shows he's way behind in large donations received over the last two weeks of the campaign.

McDonnell, according to reports compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project, accepted nearly $1.5 million in $5,000+ donations since the last campaign finance filing deadline on Oct. 21. That's three times what Deeds took in, and Deeds started the last two weeks far less dough than McDonnell.

It was evident in Northern Virginia, where McDonnell blanketed the airwaves with ads showing him to be a pragmatic problem solver in Richmond and a candidate for governor -- though it wasn't clear which party he was part of.

*A local paper writes about the big final rallies.

*Scozzafava talks about her decision to drop out, and back the Democrat.

*What to watch for in the race.

NEW JERSEY (RCP Average: Christie +1.0)

*On Election Day, Gov. Jon Corzine's schedule is heavy on labor GOTV events. Chris Christie visits some diners and goes to a local GOP headquarters. Chris Daggett also has some retail stops and does some interviews.

*Expecting a recount? And charges of voter fraud. Gear up for what could be a wild day.

*Judges and attorneys will be on hand in courthouses around the state.

*Democrats admitted that they were behind a robocall praising indie Daggett and knocking Republican Christie.

*The suburbs are key in a state that's mostly suburban.

*Corzine thinks he has momentum.

*Look who joined Christie yesterday: former Gov. Christie Whitman. Also, Tom Kean.

*The Seinfeld of races: A "campaign about nothing"?

VIRGINIA (RCP Average: McDonnell +13.4)

*Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

*Down so far in the polls, Deeds is facing a tougher task of getting out the vote than McDonnell.

*Virginians want "jobs, jobs and more jobs."

*Both candidates swung through Charlottesville yesterday.

*Chuck Todd calls Deeds' campaign "inept."

*Brad Todd says the race came down to the "advertising decisions made by both parties" in Northern Virginia.

*Democratic strategists are preparing to lose all three big races today.

In Washington, meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits. She'll meet with President Obama at the White House before heading to Congress to speak to a joint session. Also at the White House, Obama meets with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, and later joins a U.S.-European Union Summit with the Prime Minister of Sweden Fredrik Reinfeldt, President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, and the European Council High Representative Javier Solana. He'll also sit down with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), a key vote on health care.

Merkel's address to Congress is at 10:30 am. Outside of that event, the focus on the Hill remains health care, as Democratic House leaders are hoping for a vote on their bill by the end of the week.