But one of the Democrats who fits that description, Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia's 11th Congressional District, told RCP in an interview that using the gubernatorial results on Tuesday to determine vulnerability in the 2010 midterm elections makes no sense, and that he's not reading much into them.

"Prudence dictates you don't overanalyze one election," Connolly told RealClearPolitics.

However, none of the four Democrats in Virginia whose congressional districts were won by the Republican gubernatorial nominee have said which way they will vote tomorrow night. While all four are on record professing skepticism of the House reform bill well before Tuesday, any 'No' votes will likely be construed as a political decision.

Calling his colleagues "principled individuals," Connolly says "they're not going to be somehow spooked by one election cycle."

Wednesday morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee singled out the four Virginia Dems who could be feeling the heat after Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) won their districts -- Reps. Rick Boucher, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello and Connolly. The latter three are freshmen serving in districts long held by Republicans, and John McCain's largest vote percentage came in the 14-term Boucher's 9th District.

"Turn the clock back," said Connolly, referring to Virginia Democrats' success at the House, Senate and presidential level in 2008. "If I had said Bob McDonnell was in trouble a year ago, how would my comment look now?"

"Everything ultimately hinges on the economy" improving, he said. "We've got a whole year for that to happen."

Of the four, Connolly may have the least to worry about, even though his Northern Virginia district was represented by Republican Tom Davis for 14 of its 17-year existence. With Davis retiring last year, Connolly won 55 percent against businessman Keith Fimian; President Obama won 57 percent there -- his third largest percentage in the state.

McDonnell's 55 percent take in the 11th District Tuesday was his smallest of the four Democratic districts he won. Fimian, who outspent Connolly last year, is taking on the congressman again in 2010.

Republicans, including Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour, quickly began comparing this year's gubernatorial results in New Jersey and Virginia to 1993, when Republicans also swept the two elections and went on to win back Congress the following year.

Connolly says that to ensure nothing like that happens again, Democrats need to "prove we can govern. That's why passing health care reform is so important."

According to his spokesman, as of this afternoon Connolly is leaning toward voting for the health care reform bill that will likely come up for a vote Saturday night, but so far he's alone in that category. Jessica Barba, Perriello's spokesman, told RCP this afternoon that the congressman is still undecided, while spokesman Clark Pettig confirms Nye has not yet announced his decision. Boucher did not return a request for comment.

That may have been a bit premature, as it appears now that Christine O'Donnell, the party's nominee in 2008 against Biden, plans to run an aggressive race from the right against the longtime Congressman. This Saturday, O'Donnell will make her first speech of the campaign at a Delaware Tea Party Rally in Dover. From a campaign release:

Christine will join participants to stand in opposition to the Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda that seeks to increase government authority and decrease individual freedom and liberty.

Committed to promoting conservative Reagan principles, Christine will address the rally and express her opposition to a government takeover of health care, wasteful spending, and other anti-free-enterprise efforts by Washington beltway politicians, and why 2010 holds great promise in turning the tide in Congress.

In a separate op-ed in a local paper, O'Donnell suggests the New York-23 race emboldens her effort, taking a shot at the moderate Castle:

It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Castle loses to O'Donnell, given his advantage in name recognition and strong popularity in the First State. And as he takes shots from the right, he also faces an attack from Democrats today, with state party leaders holding a conference call on the possibility of Castle voting against health care reform legislation this weekend. He may actually embrace taking fire from both sides to burnish a moderate persona for the general election. But stranger things have happened and could happen with more than 300 days until a primary.

The economy will also be part of the discussion today, as unemployment increased again to 10.2 percent in October -- the highest since April 1983.

Today after his morning briefings, President Obama signs the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009. Later he'll visit Walter Reed Army Medical Center, a stop added in the wake of yesterday's killings in Fort Hood, Texas. Back at the White House, Obama will then welcome Congressman-Elect Bill Owens to the Oval Office. Tomorrow he will meet with House Democrats on the Hill to push for their support on the impending health care reform vote.

And it will be like old times in Des Moines this weekend, with a 2012 double feature this weekend. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty speaks at an Iowa GOP dinner on Saturday. Mike Huckabee visits West Des Moines and two other cities promoting his new Christmas book.

*Yesterday he addressed the killings in Fort Hood, Texas, saying: "It's difficult enough when we lose these brave Americans in battles overseas.. It is horrifying that they should come under fire at an Army base on American soil," per The Hill.

*Politics Daily reports that "mental stress is emerging as a prime factor in the horrific shootings."

*AP: "Obama and House Democrats scrambled on Thursday to secure the votes to pass a historic health care overhaul initiative, working to ease disagreements with rank-and-file lawmakers over abortion and illegal immigrants."

*Obama stopped by the press briefing room briefly to tout the endorsement of the AARP for health care legislation. First Read calls it "a strategic maneuver by the White House to regain control of the message" amid yesterday's Capitol Hill protests.

*LA Times: "As President Obama struggles over a new military strategy for Afghanistan, his advisors are trying to satisfy sharply divergent demands: assuring Americans that any military buildup will be limited while convincing Pakistan and other wary allies that the U.S. presence is substantial and not about to end."

**Congress
*Roll Call reports that the House Hispanic Caucus has warned Obama that 20 of its members are ready to vote against health care "if language restricting the rights of illegal immigrants to buy insurance is added to the bill."

*"Pelosi insisted 'we will' get the 218 votes Dems needed for passage. She must find supporters within her 258-member caucus because Republicans are united against it," The Hill reports.

*Politico: "The fate of the bill itself rests on the shoulders of a new generation of Democrats whose young careers will be defined, in part, by the votes they cast Saturday -- votes sure to be used against many of them in 2010."

*Meet Rick Scott, who Politics Daily reports is "the one man arguably most responsible for stalling the rush toward ObamaCare."

**Campaign Stuff
*The Pioneer Press previews Pawlenty's Iowa jaunt. "State GOP leaders picked Pawlenty to give this year's speech because he is a 'fresh face on the political front. He's a popular, conservative governor who has been successful in a blue state,' said Chuck Larson Jr., a former legislator, state Republican Party chairman and U.S. ambassador to Latvia."

*Bloomberg writes about the early activity in Iowa for 2012, while noting: "Obama's re-election campaign will have an Iowa presence this month as well, when Vice President Joe Biden speaks Nov. 21 at a Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in Des Moines."

*In the race to replace Pawlenty, Democrats have a live one now as Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak enters the race. The Star Tribune: "No Minneapolis mayor has ever won a governor's race, and Rybak, who campaigned heavily for President Obama last year, brings both assets and issues to the statewide race."

*New York Gov. David Paterson is getting an early start on his ad campaign, the New York Times reports. "The two ads, each 30 seconds long, highlight his biography and address criticism Mr. Paterson has faced from labor unions and business interests over his proposed cuts to the state budget. Both directly confront what polls say is Mr. Paterson's central political problem: widespread public skepticism that he has the ability to lead the state effectively."

*Josh Kraushaar reports that Montana Sen. Jon Tester may get a challenge in 2012 from the state's longtime Congressman, Denny Rehberg.

*AP reports that Carly Fiorina's record at HP will be the key to the California Senate race. And Kyle spoke with her primary opponent, Chuck DeVore, in the wake of Fiorina's endorsement by eight U.S. senators.

*Rep. Mark Kirk's (R-Ill.) request for support from Sarah Palin "has become fundraising fodder for" Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Tribune reports.

--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli

The senators, some of whom are reportedly hosting a fundraiser for her in Washington later this month, include the GOP's 2008 presidential nominee and the Senate's minority leader and whip: John McCain (Ariz.), Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Jon Kyl (Ariz.), Tom Coburn (Okla.), Susan Collins (Maine), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Olympia Snowe (Maine).

Fiorina's endorsement by Coburn -- a celebrated conservative for his demand for fiscal discipline in Congress -- particularly stands out, and perhaps could be a bridge Fiorina needs to the conservative wing of her party.

"One of Carly's greatest strengths is that she has never served in elected office," Coburn said, according to a press release from the Fiorina campaign. "Carly's common sense and fiscal conservatism will be a welcome addition to the United State Senate."

However, some grassroots conservatives around the country have already begun supporting California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, Fiorina's more-conservative primary opponent. DeVore, in an interview with RealClearPolitics, said the opinions of elected officials from inside the Beltway will hardly make a difference in the race.

"It's not surprising at all to me that the Republican establishment would come in behind her," said DeVore, who claims the support of 60 percent of Republican state office holders. "The only surprise I have is that it wasn't more than eight."

DeVore said he represents a "principled Republicanism," unlike some of the senators who supported Fiorina.

Although Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the committee would not spend money in contested Republican primaries, it is promoting fundraisers for select candidates, including Fiorina and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Also, the Associated Press reported today that the NRSC is hosting a fundraiser for an Arkansas Senate candidate, State Sen. Gilbert Baker, who has six primary opponents.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) endorsed DeVore earlier this week, adding to his activity in contested primaries. DeMint was also an early endorser of Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race. Rubio is taking on Crist, who was endorsed by the NRSC and Senate leadership minutes after officially entering the race.

The primary race has already become reminiscent of one that ended badly for the party this week. Republicans suffered an awkward defeat Tuesday in the special election for New York's 23rd District, where the national party initially supported the Republican nominee while conservatives from around the country backed Doug Hoffman, who was running on the Conservative Party line.

The Club for Growth, which offered considerable financial assistance to Hoffman, has not decided whether it will endorse a candidate in the California Senate race, or whom it would endorse if it does. The organization, which demands fiscal conservatism in its candidates, has already announced it will not be backing other establishment-supported Senate candidates, including Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.).

Calling Democrats' efforts to pass health care reform "gangster government at its worst," Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) invited people from all over the country to the Capitol today, to "tell their Representatives to vote no to a government take-over of one-fifth of our economy." Thousands of people showed up to the West Front of the Capitol as House GOP leaders, Bachmann, actor Jon Voight, and radio host Mark Levin bashed President Obama and congressional Democrats.

The event used populist themes in its disapproval of reform, as the word "freedom" was uttered countless times by speakers. Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) called the Dems' bill "the greatest threat to freedom that I've seen in my 19 years in Congress."

"I'm going to stand with you and all freedom-loving Americans against this bill," he continued.

Asked at a press conference later in the day about some racist signs that turned up in the crowd, Boehner said he didn't see any. Asked if he worried that the signs that appeared on the Capitol grounds today might show that the GOP is out of the mainstream, Boehner said it was just the opposite.

"I think Republicans are standing with the mainstream in opposition to Pelosi-care," he said.

Earlier in the day, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) said she was excited for Democrats' special election victories Tuesday in California and New York, not only because it gave her two more votes for health care reform, but because "health care was the issue" in both races. She did not mention the Democrats' losses in the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races.

Asked about Pelosi's comments, Boehner laughed and said he disagreed with her analysis of the races. As evidence, he pointed to the election results in New York's 23rd District, where 46 percent voted for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and 5 percent voted for GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, who left the race days before the election.

"A majority of the people who voted in that election in New York on Tuesday night voted against the Obama-Pelosi agenda here in Washington," he said. "And so they can spin it any way they want, the leaders can, but let me tell you what: Their members saw what happened Tuesday night."

Speaker Pelosi and her leadership team are currently whipping votes on health care, as they prepare for a Saturday vote. In the meantime, House Republicans are holding what they're calling a health care "House Call" on the West front steps of the Capitol today at noon. GOP leadership will speak, with most of the conference standing on the steps behind them.

On the House floor today, the chamber will vote on the Senate-altered Unemployment Compensation Extension Act and begin consideration of the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Act of 2009. The Senate will debate and move closer to a vote on the Commerce, Justice, Science Appropriations bill.

**Election Post-Mortem
*AP: "What we learned from the off-year elections: The president's influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology and, once more, 'It's the economy, stupid.'"

*CNN's Peter Hamby writes about the GOP's new superstar, Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R). "Fred Malek, a prominent Republican fundraiser and party insider who spent Election Night in Richmond with McDonnell, agreed that it's too early to speculate about the governor-elect's political future. But he said he expects Republicans around the country to welcome McDonnell as a campaigner and fundraiser for years to come."

*Wall Street Journal: "Elections this week left Democrats scrambling to renew the coalition that elected President Barack Obama after independent voters, whose power to determine U.S. elections is rising with their numbers, broke heavily toward Republicans. But even as Republicans celebrated their victories, they faced a struggle to build unity between the party establishment and the conservative activists who have helped lift the GOP out of the doldrums after two successive election cycle defeats."

*Adam Nagourney's take on the state of the GOP: "The divisions within the party extend beyond the traditional strains between the shrinking ranks of Republican moderates and the social and economic conservatives who have dominated the party in recent years. The situation is all the more complicated because, after the party's defeats in 2008, it has no dominant leaders or cohesive establishment to bridge the divides and help articulate a positive agenda. In that vacuum, the conservative activists and party leaders were both jockeying for advantage on Wednesday."

*"An ebullient" Michael Steele yesterday "modestly credited conservative and Republican activists and volunteers" with GOP wins on Tuesday, Washington Times reports.

*Speaking of Biden's last-minute visit to New York-23, a senior White House official tells ABC: "We're 2-0 against Palin. The Vice President went in and took on Governor Palin and the other national Republicans who had gotten involved in the race and we're sure happy that Owens pulled out that win."

**Campaign 2010/2012
*It's coming! The mayor-elect of Manchester, New Hampshire got congratulatory phone calls from Pawlenty, Romney and Pataki, ABC reports.

*With the president in Wisconsin, Obama's top political adviser met with potential Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Tom Barrett, Politico reports.

*Conservative groups aren't hanging their heads after the NY-23 loss, Politics Daily reports. Instead, these six 2010 races will provide "a test of their contention that conservatives make better GOP candidates": Florida Senate, Texas Governor, California Senate, California Governor, Kansas-01 and Georgia-09.

*"Two big questions loom in the wake of the 2009 elections. The first is whether Barack Obama learned anything new about American voters. The second is whether American voters will soon learn something new about Obama," Politico reports.

*SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky: Rand Paul and Dan Mongiardo lead the GOP and Democratic Senate primaries, respectively.

*Despite low poll numbers, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) is announcing her intention to seek a full term.

**Sports Alert: Start spreading the news! As Mike predicted in this very space on Opening Day in April, the New York Yankees are the 2009 World Champions. The first time in nine years, and the fifth time for the "core four" of Posada, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte. Bring on the parade!

--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad

Believe it or not, the first primary election of 2010 is just 90 days away, in Illinois. Given the debate over New York-23 and its implications for the GOP, that may make Mark Kirk the latest test case in just how moderate or conservative a Republican can be to win a primary and, ultimately, the election. Today, Chris Cillizza reports that the Senate hopeful is appealing for Sarah Palin's endorsement. Her support for Doug Hoffman spurred Dede Scozzafava out of the race, but ultimately could not keep the seat from going to a Democrat. Kirk seems convinced that he needs her backing to win on February 2, however, before he can think about November.

A more significant problem for the GOP, however, comes as a result of NRSC chair John Cornyn's announcement today that the committee would not commit any resources in contested primaries. A day after tough Democratic losses, it had to feel like Christmas come early at the DSCC as they mapped out how this could change the entire playing field.

One could make the case that the GOP has primaries or the threats of primaries in every key Senate race except for Delaware. And now, would-be challengers who may have been holding off for fear of the NRSC's organizational might have seen a major roadblock taken away. Cornyn's announcement has local reporters across the country checking in with these candidates as well as the increasingly nervous Washington-preferred challengers (one, Carly Fiorina, announced her candidacy just today). And Democratic state committees and some candidates in these states have cranked out press releases celebrating the decision.

The calendar comes into play here, too, because some of the GOP's most contested primaries take place later in the calendar year, meaning that any major battle, particularly one expected in Florida, and others in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Connecticut, will produce a nominee with less time to recover before a general election campaign.

After the jump, a chronological clip-and-save of the 2010 primary season.

March 2
Texas (Senate & Governor)

May 4
Indiana (Senate)
North Carolina (Senate)
Ohio (Senate & Governor)

May 11
Nebraska (Governor)

May 18
Arkansas (Senate & Governor)
Kentucky (Senate)
Oregon (Senate & Governor)
Pennsylvania (Senate & Governor)

May 25
Idaho (Senate & Governor)

June 1
Alabama (Senate & Governor)
New Mexico (Governor)

June 8
California (Senate & Governor)
Iowa (Senate & Governor)
Maine (Governor)
Nevada (Senate & Governor)
North Dakota (Senate)
South Carolina (Senate & Governor)
South Dakota (Senate & Governor)

June 22
Utah (Senate & Governor)

July 20
Georgia (Senate & Governor)

July 27
Oklahoma (Senate & Governor)

August 3
Kansas (Senate & Governor)
Michigan (Senate & Governor)
Missouri (Senate)

August 5
Tennessee (Governor)

August 10
Alaska (Senate & Governor)
Colorado (Senate & Governor)
Connecticut (Senate & Governor)

August 17
Washington (Senate)
Wyoming (Governor)

August 24
Florida (Senate & Governor)

August 28
Louisiana (Senate)

August 31
Arizona (Senate & Governor)

September 14
Delaware (Senate)
Maryland (Senate & Governor)
Massachusetts (Governor)
Minnesota (Governor)
New Hampshire (Senate & Governor)
New York (Senate & Governor)
Rhode Island (Governor)
Vermont (Senate & Governor)
Wisconsin (Senate & Governor)

September 18
Hawaii (Senate & Governor)

In an op-ed in the Orange County Register today, Fiorina said her motivation to enter the race is that "the decisions made by the Senate impact every family and every business, of any size, in America."

"Our most pressing problems today are too few jobs for Americans and too much spending in Washington," Fiorina wrote. "As California's senator, economic recovery and fiscal accountability will be my priorities."

Fiorina opened her op-ed with an explanation of her spotty voting record, which has dogged her campaign even before she officially entered the race. The San Francisco Chronicle reported in June that Fiorina voted in just one-in-four local, state and national elections in the Bay Area since 2000.

"Admittedly, I have not always been engaged in the electoral process, and I should have been," writes Fiorina, who also discussed her voting record, along with taxes and abortion, in an interview with a California Republican blog.

Although Fiorina will be well-funded, she does not have a clear path to the general election. DeVore, who will challenge her on conservative principles, was endorsed yesterday by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). This is DeMint's latest foray into a 2010 Senate GOP primary -- he also endorsed Marco Rubio in Florida, instead of party favorite Gov. Charlie Crist.

However, Fiorina will also get be getting some help from the party establishment, as The Hill reports she will attend a Washington fundraiser hosted by a number of senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and McCain.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee isn't waiting for the primary to conclude to begin knocking Fiorina's credentials. In a statement released this morning, DSCC spokesman Eric Schultz indicates which angle the committee will take against her.

"The hallmark of Carly Fiorina's resume is her tenure at Hewlett-Packard where she laid-off 28,000 Americans while shipping jobs overseas - just before taking a $21 million golden parachute," said Schultz. "Given that record, the United States Senate is the last place Carly Fiorina should go next."

As pundits debate what last night's elections mean for the future of his administration, President Obama will leave the Beltway bubble and travel to Wisconsin for an event focused on education. On the anniversary of his election, Obama also participates in a credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors, and tonight will host an event celebrating classical music back at the White House.

In Congress, the House takes up the Expedited CARD Reform for Consumers Act of 2009, while the Senate resumes consideration of the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2009.

*Washington Times: "Top Democrats predicted that the backlash against the Republican Party in a New York congressional election Tuesday marked the start of a wave that will continue in key 2010 Senate races, saying they think independent voters will abandon a divided Republican Party."

*Politico: "The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama's political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy."

*The Hill: "Vulnerable House and Senate Democrats want their leaders to skip the party's controversial legislative agenda for next year to help save their seats in Congress. In the run-up to the 2010 midterm elections, they don't want to be forced to vote on climate change, immigration reform and gays in the military, which they say should be set aside so Congress can focus on jobs and the economy."

*New York Times: "The Republican victories in the races for New Jersey and Virginia governors put the party in a stronger position to turn back the political wave President Obama unleashed last year, setting the stage for Republicans to raise money, recruit candidates and ride the excitement of an energized base as the party heads into next year's midterm elections. But a Democratic victory in an upstate New York Congressional district ... signaled that the Republican Party faces continued upheaval."

*AP: "Voters nervous about the economy and fed up with the political establishment dominated the off-year elections, sending a strong message to President Barack Obama, who won the White House as a change agent but has himself become the face of political power and incumbency."

*"By seizing gubernatorial seats in Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans on Tuesday dispelled any notion of President Obama's electoral invincibility, giving the GOP a lift and offering warning signs to Democrats ahead of the 2010 midterm elections," the L.A. Times reports.

*ABC's look at the exits: "Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday's off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. Still the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey looked less like a referendum on Barack Obama than a reflection of their own candidates and issues."

*For the record, Obama was not watching the results anyway. So there.

**New Jersey Governor: Christie (R) 49 - Corzine (D) 45
*The Star Ledger reports, "Corzine becomes just the third New Jersey governor in the past 60 years to go down after a single term in office. Veteran legislators who have worked with Corzine -- both in public and behind closed doors -- point to a number of reasons for his defeat, but they say none looms larger than the Democratic governor's struggles to deliver on his signature issues: reining in taxes and firming up the state's shaky finances."

*The Bergen Record: "More than 20 key players interviewed in both campaigns said regardless of Corzine's wealth and a strong Democratic endgame strategy, Christie was always favored to win a race defined by a weak economy, high property taxes and troubling unemployment."

*Independent Chris Daggett, thought to be a potential spoiler, said this of his showing: "What we found was the most important thing is you have to have money. What I fear is if you're not independently wealthy, you might not have a chance."

*AP notes a somewhat surprising result in the exit polls: Christie "won decisively among independent women, a key group that Corzine's campaign courted with gusto, harping on Christie's opposition to abortion rights in most cases and his support of allowing low-cost insurance plans for some."

*Corzine lost the base? Sierra Club chief tells PolitickerNJ: "Jon Corzine wasn't true to his base and he lost. Groups like the environmentalists are angry at him... so many other progressives and liberal Democrats stayed home."

**Virginia Governor McDonnell (R) 59 - Deeds (D) 41
*Richmond Times-Dispatch: "A year after tipping Democratic for president for the first time since 1964, Virginia fell to Republicans in a dramatic statewide sweep that is a historic reminder of its enduring competitiveness -- but may not be a model for a national GOP comeback."

*Politics Daily: "Republicans who are looking for a model would do well to look to McDonnell. He is unabashedly conservative, yet focused his race on issues such as transportation and the economy - issues that most Virginia voters would tell you are near and dear to them these days. It doesn't hurt that he's so telegenic or that he ran a smooth as butter campaign."

*Virginian-Pilot: "A staunch conservative on many issues, McDonnell's successful campaign strategy emphasized kitchen table concerns rather than social ideology. His message of restoring economic prosperity and creating jobs appeared to resonate with voters worried about the recession and national policies coming out of Washington."

*Kyle's take from Richmond: "A social conservative who successfully ran on bread and butter pocketbook issues, McDonnell racked up huge victories in the key exurban counties of Loudoun and Prince William, which Gov. Tim Kaine carried in 2005 and President Obama won just a year ago. He also carried Fairfax County, which Obama won by 21 points. ... While Deeds's inability to continue the blue streak is official, the reasons for it vary. Many political observers blame the Deeds campaign for being inept and lacking discipline, while also recognizing an unmistakable shift in the national mood from a year ago."

**New York-23 special election Owens (D) 49 - Hoffman (C) 45
*Watertown Daily Times: "For the first time since the mid-19th century, a Democrat will represent Northern New York in the U.S. House of Representatives. William L. Owens, the Democratic and Working Families candidate for the 23rd Congressional District special election, won a tight race Tuesday night."

*"Democrat Bill Owens has won the special election in New York's 23rd district, giving Democrats a big House takeover in a race that garnered plenty of national attention," The Hill reports. Doug "Hoffman appeared to have the momentum going into Election Day in the upstate district, but the de facto Republican nominee appeared to succumb to the Democratic turnout machine and a late visit from Vice President Joe Biden."

*Washington Post: Owens's "triumph came after a bizarre weekend in which the Republican nominee, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out on the eve of the election and endorsed Owens. Her decision came after a slew of prominent Republicans had backed Hoffman and distanced themselves from her, dooming her chances."

--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli

Joined by national labor leaders, Corzine specifically brought up the fight over the Employee Free Choice Act, and said: "We want to send a message to America that in the most labor friendly state in America, we're returning the governor no matter how tough times are."

Several hundred workers attended the lunch-time rally, some greeting him by asking if he was "Fired up," an Obama campaign credo. The governor, saying this was "the last election I run in," said the union's GOTV efforts were critical not just for his future but the president's.

"Our president is working for a national health care program," he said. "He needs our help so that he can tell the Congress there is no lack of support out in the countryside. We stand with our president."

He surprised even some in the union hall with some salty language, saying Obama has already begun to "stop that trickle-down economic stuff that got us into this damn mess from the Bush people."

"We will have things going in the right direction," he said.

Corzine then went to a local diner, where actor Abe Vigoda also made an appearance.

"I gotta feeling, I gotta feeling, I gotta feeling / that tonight's gonna be a good night, that tonight's gonna be a good night, that tonight's gonna be a good good night / I gotta feeling."

And the Deeds campaign just released another turnout report from campaign manager Joe Abbey:

"Our afternoon reports have shown that Charlottesville continues to be a bright spot for Deeds turnout today, with numbers running way ahead of targets. Democratic turnout has surged in Roanoke over the past several hours and we are hitting our targets in Democratic precincts in that market. And turnout continue to look strong in key precincts in Northern Virginia."

Facing daunting polling numbers over the past month, Deeds advisers have continued to say that if they can just get a few hundred thousand Obama surge voters out to the polls they can win this thing. Easier said than done, of course, but it's their one hope and something they pushed pretty hard for the last few days with door knocks and phone banking.

The lack of an energized base in Northern Virginia, as well as the big question mark that is those Obama voters around the state, especially in Hampton Roads, make predicting Deeds' final tally pretty tough.

Hoping for positive, midday media reports, the Deeds campaign released a statement just before 1 p.m. (while this reporter was driving down from D.C.) stating that turnout was looking good in essential counties for statewide Democratic candidates.

"We are seeing encouraging numbers in key parts of the state. Northern and Central Virginia in particular look strong," said Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey. "The Charlottesville area, which includes areas represented by Creigh Deeds in the state Senate is particularly strong and 10 percent of voters in key Democratic precincts had already voted by 10 AM. Meanwhile, voters in the populous and Democratic precincts of Alexandria and Arlington have been voting at rates well above the average in other parts of the Commonwealth."

Deeds currently trails by 13.4 points in the polls and recent fundraising data shows he's way behind in large donations received over the last two weeks of the campaign.

McDonnell, according to reports compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project, accepted nearly $1.5 million in $5,000+ donations since the last campaign finance filing deadline on Oct. 21. That's three times what Deeds took in, and Deeds started the last two weeks far less dough than McDonnell.

It was evident in Northern Virginia, where McDonnell blanketed the airwaves with ads showing him to be a pragmatic problem solver in Richmond and a candidate for governor -- though it wasn't clear which party he was part of.

In Washington, meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits. She'll meet with President Obama at the White House before heading to Congress to speak to a joint session. Also at the White House, Obama meets with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, and later joins a U.S.-European Union Summit with the Prime Minister of Sweden Fredrik Reinfeldt, President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, and the European Council High Representative Javier Solana. He'll also sit down with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), a key vote on health care.

Merkel's address to Congress is at 10:30 am. Outside of that event, the focus on the Hill remains health care, as Democratic House leaders are hoping for a vote on their bill by the end of the week.

*New York Times' Zeleny goes back to Iowa and finds misgivings about a president whose path to victory started there. "For Democrats, the immediate peril of failing to hang on to some of these swing voters could play out Tuesday in the governor's race in Virginia, a state Mr. Obama wrested away from Republicans last year but where the Democratic candidate for governor has struggled to recreate Mr. Obama's enthusiastic coalition."

*Ed Henry interviewed Vice President Biden. On his tendency to go off script: "There's a big difference between me giving the president my advice and having direct access to him on every major issue ... and me going out with a policy that is separate and apart from other people in the administration, which you saw with Cheney," Biden said.

*AP: "The president has spent a considerable amount of time and energy trying to ensure that Democrats win governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey and pick up a GOP-held congressional seat in upstate New York. In doing so, Obama raised the stakes of a low-enthusiasm off-year election season -- and risked political embarrassment if any lost."

*Washington Times: "The White House is beginning to send strong signals that it recognizes the $1.4 trillion budget deficit is a looming political problem that needs to be addressed, even as President Obama reminds Americans that the country's fiscal crisis originated with the Bush administration and will not be resolved overnight."

**Health Care
*"While House leaders are moving toward a vote on health-care legislation by the end of the week, enough Democrats are threatening to oppose the measure over the issue of abortion to create a question about its passage," Washington Post reports.

*The House bill "is much tougher on the drug industry than what the Senate is considering. And that could prove one of the challenges for lawmakers when the legislation eventually reaches a House-Senate conference committee," New York Times reports.

*"Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter," The Hill reports.

**Congress
*All seven members of Congress who are currently the subjects of a "full-scale ethics committee probe" are African American, Politico reports. "...members of the Congressional Black Caucus are wary of talking about it on the record. But privately, some black members are outraged -- and see in the numbers a worrisome trend in the actions of ethics watchdogs on and off Capitol Hill."

*"Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said Monday she will not be intimidated by GOP boycott threats and vowed to begin marking up her climate change legislation Tuesday regardless of whether Republicans show up at the Environment and Public Works Committee session," Roll Call reports.

**Campaign Stuff
*AP runs down exactly what's on the ballot nationwide. Chuck Todd offers this pre-spin: "It isn't about whether or not Tuesday's elections matter. Tuesday is about which party learns the messages voters are sending. And which party over-interprets or under-interprets those messages."

*It was Biden vs. Palin again on the campaign trail yesterday.

*CBS has an excerpt from the first of several books documenting Sarah Palin's time on the campaign trail.

*Republicans have a primary in the Florida gubernatorial race afterall, with state Sen. Paula Dockery entering the race, the Miami Herald reports. Bill McCollum had thought to have a clear path.

*Speaking of Florida primaries, check out Marco Rubio's new fundraising site.

*Politico: "The conservative coup in upstate New York did much more than lay bare the power of conservative activists: It exposed how little control GOP officials hold over this surging and formidable political movement."

--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad