-- Newly elected Democrat Travis Childers won a special election this week that sent shockwaves through the GOP establishment. We talk with Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who helped Childers win, to find out if the victory can foreshadow big things in November.

-- Along with the Democratic presidential primary, Oregonians are going to choose a candidate to battle incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith in November. We'll talk with State House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland lawyer and activist Steve Novick, the two front-runners, about why they are best to beat Smith in November, even as public polls have showed both trailing.

All that and a few surprises, we're sure, Saturday morning on Politics Nation, only on XM Radio's POTUS '08. Listen live, Saturday from 10 a.m. to noon Eastern and again at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.

In perhaps the strangest interview front-running Obama has ever had to go through, Willamette Week, an alternative weekly in Portland, hit on the key issues important to voters in the City of Roses. Obama told the interviewer he would stop federal agents' raids on Oregon's medical marijuana farms and he would negotiate with counties affected by a wounded timber industry.

Obama had nice things to say about the state's Republican Senator, Gordon Smith, who could face a tough battle for re-election this year. But the candidate stayed on message: "I think Gordon Smith's problem is that he rarely breaks away from George Bush and the Republican agenda that I think has done this country great damage," Obama said. "But personally I think he's a perfectly decent person." Obama professed to have no opinion on the race's Democratic primary.

To finish, the paper put the really tough question to Obama: What kind of tattoo would he have? Take a look at the transcript:

Willamette Week: If you had a tattoo, what would it be and where would you put it?

Barack Obama: Uh, I cannot imagine any circumstances in which I would get a tattoo.

W.W.: If you were under duress.

B.O.: If a gun was put to my head?

W.W.: Yes.

B.O.: Then I suppose I'd have to have [his wife] Michelle's name tattooed somewhere very discreet.

Funny enough, in the twenty minutes the paper got with Clinton, early in April, she too indicated she would only get a tattoo under duress. "If I was under duress? Gosh, I have been asked millions of questions, and no one has ever asked me that. I have so little interest in having a tattoo, that I just am going to have to ponder this," Clinton said. "It can be really, really small, right? I think it would be really, really small, like under a microscope, and it would say 'love.'" Clinton declined to say where her body art would be featured.

We wonder if either candidate has seriously thought about a plan to fight what must apparently be the rampant rash of vicious gangs marauding through American streets putting guns to people's heads and forcing them to get tattoos.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist will host two invitation-only events in Tampa and Fort Lauderdale in early June, inviting national Republicans to discuss ways to vault the wounded GOP back to the top of the pile, the Associated Press reports. Crist's top adviser and former chief of staff, George LeMieux, will be heavily involved, and to add party weight Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour is co-hosting.

Barbour took himself out of the running for the number two slot earlier this month in an interview with the Washington Times. But Crist's name has long been floated, despite his denials and demurrals, as someone with a future in the national GOP. Bringing Republican leaders together for a summit on the future of the party is a sure way to keep the vice presidential buzz going.

Meanwhile, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, one of McCain's earliest backers, will give the keynote speech at a huge gathering of Wisconsin Republicans, the Wausau Daily Herald reports. The state hasn't voted Republican since 1984, but with McCain on the ballot, Badger Republicans are optimistic about their chances. (The latest RCP Wisconsin Average shows Barack Obama running just 1.6 points ahead of McCain there.)

State and local parties around the country now have a plethora of choices for fundraising dinners large and small. Whether it's Crist, Pawlenty or any of the dozen or so serious contenders interested in the number two slot, no local party should have trouble lining up talent, especially if they're a swing state. Pawlenty, too, has serious appeal in the upper Midwest, a place McCain could make inroads in the search for new electoral votes, and heading to Wisconsin could be the beginning of his time in the sun.

Hanna has been considering a run for a number of months now. He formed an exploratory committee in November, but had been non-committal about the race until this morning. Like Arcuri, Hanna grew up in Utica, the largest city of the J-shaped 24th District, located in central New York.

Boehlert had a moderate voting record in the House and eventually retired in 2006 after consistently facing primary challenges from more conservative candidates. Likewise, the district has swing potential: President Bush won 53% of the district's vote in 2004 and won it by just 1 point in 2000. In 2006, Arcuri defeated Republican Ray Meier 54%-45%, spending $2.2 million. Through the end of March, Arcuri raised $900,000 and has $600,000 left in the bank. Hanna has yet to file a finance report with the FEC.

"We believe there is an opportunity here," NRCC press secretary Ken Spain told the Utica Observer-Dispatch. "This is a moderate district that wants moderate representation that will embody change, and so far Michael Arcuri has offered none of the above."

While Arcuri will go into November as a strong favorite, Hanna's entrance into the race shows Republican potential on two fronts: First, given his independent wealth, Hanna could largely self-fund his race, something the underfunded party needs at a time when their cash disparity with national Democrats is so large.

Second, Republicans won't win seats back if they don't compete in districts like Arcuri's. The GOP has had some recruitment successes this year, but dozens of Democratic members in what are, or could be, swing districts will run in November without serious opposition. The NRCC can't commit financial resources everywhere, but just by running a strong candidate, they could get lucky in a few contests.

-- Kyle Trygstad

The poll, conducted by independent pollster Research 2000 for DailyKos, was conducted 5/12-14 among 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Young and former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, who leads the Democratic primary, were tested. The survey sample was 32% Republican, 20% Democratic and 48% independent or otherwise affiliated.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Berkowitz 50 / 85 / 18 / 57 / 46 / 54
Young 40 / 6 / 71 / 34 / 45 / 35

If Young is the Republican nominee in November, it is unlikely Republicans will be able to save his seat. Just 38% of Alaskans view him favorably, while 58% say they have an unfavorable impression of him. On the other hand, Berkowitz, the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2006, is seen in a favorable light by 49% of voters, compared with 23% who think of him unfavorably.

For the GOP, though, there may be hope. Faced with a highly unpopular governor running for re-election in 2006, Alaska Republicans instead nominated a reformist candidate who beat a popular Democrat. Young, too, faces the prospect of losing his primary fight after Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell made his surprise entry into the race last month. State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux is also running for the Republican nod, and should either score an upset in the August 26 primary, their party might have a much better chance at holding the seat come November.

Berkowitz faces Diane Benson, an activist who has run for several offices before, including against Young, in the Democratic primary. Benson trailed Young by a 57%-40% margin in 2006, though that was the slimmest margin by which the incumbent won since 1994.

The poll, conducted by independent pollster Research 2000 for DailyKos, was conducted 5/12-14 among 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the likely Democratic candidate, were tested. The survey sample was 32% Republican, 20% Democratic and 48% independent or otherwise affiliated.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Begich 48 / 84 / 14 / 56 / 44 / 52
Stevens 43 / 7 / 76 / 36 / 48 / 38

Stevens, whose home was raided by the FBI in connection to a corruption case surrounding an oil services company, has been tarnished by the scandal. Just 38% of Alaskans view him favorably, while 58% see him in an unfavorable light. On the other hand, Begich is widely viewed positively; 52% of voters see him favorably, with just 25% saying they have an unfavorable impression of the mayor of the state's largest city.

If President Bush is to have an impact on down-ballot races, Stevens could face even more trouble. Just 39% of Alaska voters approve of Bush's job performance, while 61% disapprove, in a state that gave Bush a twenty-five point margin of victory in 2004. But Stevens, who has been a senator since 1968 and is lauded as the third leg of the Alaskan economy, is known widely enough that he can likely avoid the president's coattails.

The question national and Alaska Democrats will push now, though, is whether Stevens can avoid the coattails of VECO Corp., the company that has already sent a good number of GOP legislators to jail.

-- After a week in which Congress passed the farm bill and the House narrowly approved a war funding measure, both chambers are in pro forma session today. President Bush has already arrived in Riyadh for meetings with King Abdullah, during which he will talk about those very gas prices we mentioned earlier. It's not often that the increasingly sidelined president gets to make news, but he sure did yesterday.

-- That news came on the floor of the Israeli Knesset, when President Bush attacked those who "seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals," calling that approach the "false comfort of appeasement." Barack Obama's campaign took that as an insult and slammed the president for politicizing the 60th birthday celebrations of the Jewish state, and for bringing Nazis into the picture, as AP's Liz Sidoti writes. Obama has said he would meet with leaders of some countries, most notably Iran, that the current administration has not. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters the line wasn't a shot at Obama, but it certainly looked that way. Reports this morning suggest Obama will offer a strong response today.

-- Obama wasn't alone in his outrage. Virtually every key Democrat in Congress issued a statement defending their party's likely nominee (Tracked down in the hall, Delaware Senator Joe Biden called the comments "bull" something, while a release from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the comments beneath the dignity of the presidency). In Rapid City, South Dakota, even Hillary Clinton got involved: "President Bush's comparison of any Democrat to Nazi appeasers is both offensive and outrageous on the face of it, especially in light of his failures in foreign policy," she said, defending Obama per Ben Smith. John McCain, on the other hand, would not disassociate himself with the comments and said Obama "needs to explain" why he would meet with Iran, the New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller writes from the bus.

-- Meanwhile, McCain's comments weren't the only shot the Arizona senator took at his colleague from Illinois yesterday. On a conference call with conservative bloggers, McCain previewed what is likely to be the harshest argument to come out of the candidate's own mouth during the campaign: "Senator Obama does not have the knowledge, the experience, the background to make the kind of judgments that are necessary to preserve this nation's security," he said, per TPM's Greg Sargent. The old tactic of making an opponent's biggest strength, in this case youthful energy, into a weakness, in this case inexperience, is McCain's best chance at winning in November.

-- But the candidate spent most of yesterday in a positive mood, telling a Columbus audience that the war in Iraq can be won by the end of his first term and previewing the intervening four years' developments on taxes, national security and the sort of post-partisanship that McCain asserts he represents, the AP's Glen Johnson writes. But forget those other issues, all reporters wanted to talk about was this new timeline for ending the war: Was this the same thing McCain blasted Mitt Romney for in advance of Super Tuesday? Was this McCain's version of a "Mission Accomplished" banner, as some Democrats suggested? Neither, McCain insisted. Most polls show voters don't approve of the war but trust McCain to handle it better, though it's clearly an issue around which he needs to tiptoe lightly. The first hurdle: Ending speculation over his "100 years" comments. Does this accomplish that goal? In the DNC's minds, it does not.

-- Meanwhile, we wrote yesterday about the loss of several McCain aides due to their lobbying efforts on behalf of the military junta in Myanmar. Also yesterday, the campaign had to ask GOP strategist Craig Shirley to step down due to his involvement in a 527 organization, and manager Rick Davis heard questions about his ties to a pro-Moscow political party in Ukraine. To stem the bleeding, McCain's team is re-vetting the entire staff, Marc Ambinder reports. Each staff member is filling out a lengthy questionnaire in coordination with a new policy on conflicts of interest, and anyone not in compliance will be shown the door.

-- Finally, from the West Coast, in a four-to-three decision the California Supreme Court struck down two state laws that define and limit marriages to those between a man and a woman, the New York Times writes. If no stay is granted within thirty days, same-sex partners will be allowed to marry, the second state, after Massachusetts, in which such unions will be recognized. Anti-gay marriage initiatives were on the ballot in a number of swing states in 2004, though some argue their presence did not actually hurt John Kerry that year, but this time around, marriage is not likely to be a hot issue. Neither Obama nor McCain are on the extremes of their party -- Obama won't support marriage, and McCain voted against a national ban because of federalism concerns. In this instance, it appears an issue that gets fringe groups worked up will not be in play come November.

-- Criminals Of The Day: On the do-not-call list? This campaign doesn't care, and now they've admitted wrongdoing in Oregon. Which campaign so brazenly runs afoul of, nay, openly scoffs at, the Beaver State's laws regarding robo-calling those on the federal register? Well, actually it's both Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's campaign that are making the illegal calls, as the Oregonian reports today. Both campaigns have stopped and are scrubbing their lists in accordance with Oregon law, but if the state's attorney general had decided to bring charges, the campaigns might have been on the hook for a whopping $5,000 per call.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama will join former Senator Tom Daschle for a town hall meeting in Watertown, South Dakota, to talk about rural issues. Former Senator George McGovern will join the two for a rally in Sioux Falls later this afternoon. Clinton will stump in Springfield, Oregon before heading to Salem and a town hall meeting in Portland. McCain addresses the annual meeting of the National Rifle Association in Louisville, Kentucky, and ends the evening in Newark, New Jersey, ahead of weekend plans.

The poll, taken by Strategic Vision, surveyed 800 likely voters between 5/9-11 for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Chambliss was tested alongside DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, former television reporter Dale Cardwell, former State Rep. Jim Martin, and businessmen Rand Knight and Josh Lanier. A subsample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters pitted the Democrats against each other for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Primary Election Matchup
Jones 28
Cardwell 20
Martin 15
Knight 11
Lanier 5

General Election Matchups
Chambliss 58 (+1 from last, 12/9/07)
Jones 29 (+2)

Chambliss 57 (nc)
Cardwell 27 (+2)

Chambliss 57 (no trend)
Martin 27

Chambliss 58 (nc)
Knight 25 (+2)

Chambliss 57 (-1)
Lanier 24 (+2)

President Bush still has upside down approval numbers in the state, but most Georgia voters approve of Chambliss' job performance, by a 54%-32% margin. National Democrats were excited when Martin, the party's 2006 lieutenant governor candidate, jumped in the race, but early surveys don't show him with any breakout potential just yet.

While national Republicans struggle to get beyond their current unpopularity, it appears, so far, that Chambliss is not in jeopardy.

A side note that's interesting to observe: In every poll out of Georgia we've seen in the last four years, be it from Strategic Vision or from another organization, Chambliss is slightly less popular than his junior colleague, Johnny Isackson. Both are Republicans, and both were elected by wide margins. Anyone in Politics Nation from Georgia able to describe the phenomenon?

Dann, along with Governor Ted Strickland and other statewide Democrats, swept into office last cycle on an anti-corruption platform, and few had shown any pause in calling for Dann's departure. Strickland and several other elected Democrats had called for Dann to step down, and when he made the announcement last night, the governor was by his side.

Others, including two Democratic congressional candidates, called on Dann to resign, and a resolution passed by the state party stripped him of his party membership. The lesson comes from state Republicans, who after several scandals -- including one in which then-Governor Bob Taft pleaded guilty to four misdemeanor counts -- lost big in the Buckeye State.

The affair, which Dann admitted earlier this month, led to a climate in which two young women were harassed. Three employees in the office were forced from their jobs as a result of the investigation. At first the incumbent refused to resign, though news reports indicated his attorney was trying to seek a deal with state legislators who were moving forward with impeachment proceedings.

That whole-sale abandonment of the party, Politico's David Rogers writes, could be trouble for Minority Leader John Boehner moving forward. While the GOP chief did not try to whip his party in line on the farm bill, future defections could hamstring the party's efforts to wound rival Democrats.

If Boehner loses control of his caucus, and if Republicans start thinking only voting with Democrats will save them, President Bush could face a very difficult final seven months of his term. The president has issued veto threats on bills ranging from the State Children's Health Insurance Program to measures relating to the war in Iraq, and if Democrats start recruiting Republican support, he could lose more battles in the future.

-- The House will take up a bill to appropriate supplemental funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with some money for domestic spending, while the Senate could start to vote on the conference committee's report on the farm bill, a report that passed the House with limited opposition. President Bush, on his first full day in Israel, visited Masada this morning and will address the Knesset today, before meeting with Quartet Representative and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

-- But the big news today is John Edwards, the former candidate and one-time Iowa front-runner who stood on stage in Grand Rapids, Michigan last night to offer some very kind words for Hillary Clinton before announcing his endorsement of Barack Obama. In the heart of Reagan Democrat country, Edwards talked about working-class issues, and the healing between Obama and white working class voters begins. Expect Edwards to get out on the campaign trail a lot for Obama in the coming months to start doing that repair work.

-- Edwards' support drives another nail in Clinton's coffin in a meta sense, but practically, he doesn't even officially bring the 16 delegates already named to Edwards-backing seats at the convention. They're free to vote for whomever they like, though given the number of ex-Edwards supporters who have migrated to the Obama campaign it's pretty likely they will be in his corner too. Notice that Edwards waited until after his state's primary; he likely couldn't have helped Obama, not only because of Obama's large margin in North Carolina but also because Edwards, who only ran once in the state, doesn't have much of an organization there. Still, more than Joe Andrew or George McGovern or Roy Romer, Edwards' backing has an air of finality, and of the party coalescing around the winner, about it.

-- Practically speaking, Edwards' was on the second-most important nod bestowed upon Obama yesterday. NARAL Pro-Choice America also gave the young senator their blessing, with the president of the abortion rights group saying they were backing the candidate who would likely win the Democratic nomination, again while praising Clinton. It's the first major women's group to abandon Clinton, and it's another sign that the Washington establishment is deciding that the race is over. (For more, check out The Fix's extensive look at the reasoning and timing behind an Edwards nod)

-- NARAL's backing of Obama prompted an angry reply from more than a dozen Clinton-backing female members of Congress, who in an evening press conference called the endorsement all kinds of ugly names. Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz said she felt "abandoned," while California Rep. Jane Harman called it a "betrayal," per Politico. EMILY's List President Ellen Malcolm issued a strongly-worded statement blasting NARAL, as Marc Ambinder writes. The endorsement's real fallout: Strife in the abortion-rights community, and further rending of the Democratic fabric.

-- Over on the GOP side, look for this story to be repeated ad nauseam: A John McCain aide is in trouble for lobbying connections. McCain has already lost two aides over their ties to the repressive regime in Myanmar, and now the Wall Street Journal reports that campaign manager Rick Davis had helped a Ukrainian political party that had the support of Vladimir Putin, the former Russian president who had a habit of meddling in nearby countries' elections. McCain, meanwhile, has publicly voiced support for the incumbent party of Viktor Yuschenko. Davis still owns a portion of the lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, but he's not earning any income, a spokesman reports. With former lobbyists involved in McCain's campaign, this story is going to return.

-- Meanwhile, McCain has designated one aide as his top attack dog already. Former chief of staff Mark Salter, frequently referred to as the senator's alter ego, has honed his skills in the art of the attack memo, and the Journal, profiling him today, suggests that could be a prelude to a campaign not inclined to pull punches. If Salter is pushing for an aggressive line against Obama, McCain is going to hear about it, and from a voice he trusts. How influential is Salter in McCain's inner circle? Three campaign aides who had quit smoking took up their habits again thanks to time spent around him.

-- Buyouts Of The Day: As the deadline for accepting a buyout from the Washington Post passes today, expect a few more names to leak out. But few could compare with yesterday's news, both in the news and entertainment divisions. On the funny side, sportswriter Tony Kornheiser, an ESPN and Washington staple, will take the buyout, he announced on his show yesterday. On the serious side, David Broder will too, as Politico reports. The man long called the dean of the Washington press corps will become a contract writer after 2008.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama is down today, spending time in Chicago. Clinton has a town hall meeting in Bath, South Dakota, before heading out west to California for a fundraiser. McCain has a major speech ready for Columbus, Ohio, and he will end the day in Washington.

As in his statement after the defeat last night, Cole was honest about his party's struggles. "When you lose 3 of these in a row, obviously you have to get beyond campaign tactics and you have to take a long hard look. Is there something wrong with your product?" he asked.

Still, in the wake of some GOP calls for a staff shakeup at the NRCC, Cole said he would resist the pressure. "I think it would be a great mistake to think that this is a question of tweaking a few things here or there or staff changes," he said. "What we've got right now is a deficiency in our message and a loss of confidence from the American people."

"That's something we need to be honest with ourselves about, look in the mirror about," he said. But, he pledged, "We continue to have offensive opportunities based on both individual issues that involve candidates and their voting records" and what he described as a do-nothing Democratic Congress.

Cole repeatedly maintained that the two Democrats who have won seats this month -- Don Cazayoux in Louisiana and Childers in Mississippi -- won by following a fundamentally Republican playbook. Nationalizing the elections, though, and associating Cazayoux and Childers with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and likely Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama can still work, he said.

The NRCC spent more than $1.7 million trying to tie Cazayoux and Childers to national and more liberal Democrats, though unsuccessfully. "I think that's still, you know, a useful tool. Do I think that's a substitute for a substantive agenda? No," he admitted. But nationalizing the election seems to be the path to which Cole is committed, raising the specter of repairing the Republican brand by November. "What we have to do is look in the mirror a little bit and say, 'How have we lost our way?'"

Mannix's charge came in a letter to 60,000 Republican voters in the district who have yet to mail in their ballots, and is based on a 2006 email the woman sent to several media outlets with the story. The 33 year old woman told her story to the Portland Tribune's Steve Law, and though she didn't want to be identified for fear of retribution, but a friend confirmed the story on the record.

The opponent accused, 2006 GOP nominee Mike Erickson, a businessman from the Portland suburb of Lake Oswego, has vehemently denied the allegations, calling them "false allegations" and a "desperate smear that Kevin Mannix resorts to," in a statement posted by the Oregonian's Steve Mayes.

Erickson, who has been endorsed by Oregon Right To Life, spoke with the group about the incident in 2006, the Tribune reported, though the group found his denials credible. "These unsubstantiated and untrue allegations are from an email from 2006 that no news media reported at the time. They are just as untrue today as they were then," Erickson said in the statement.

This is not the kind of feuding Republicans need in their efforts to take back what will likely be a competitive House seat in November. Erickson lost to Hooley by eleven points in 2006, and President Bush carried the district narrowly in both his races. If Republicans field a good candidate, they would have a chance at winning the open seat, which stretches from the Cascade foothills, south of Portland and including Salem and west to the Pacific Coast.

Erickson has raised more than $900,000 this cycle after spending $1.8 million last time out, amounts that have largely come from his own checkbook. Mannix has been less prolific in his fundraising, but he has name recognition that Erickson might not, given his long history in Oregon Republican politics. Steve Marks, a former chief of staff to Governor John Kitzhaber, and State Senator Kurt Schrader are running on the Democratic side, though both started late and have raised significantly less money than the two Republicans.

Both parties are going to spend money in one of the few swing districts available on the West Coast, but if the Republican primary devolves into these kinds of allegations and rumors, Democrats might have an easier time than they thought retaining the seat.

But that's not all: "We're also taking this week to launch a new section of our store - complete with eco-friendly items."

Fill those Chirstmas stockings early with an embroidered polo shirt or t-shirt, 70% of which is bamboo and the other 30% of which is cotton. Take your support to the grocery store, with an organic cotton tote bag woven in the United States. And it's never too early to head back-to-school shopping, especially not with a recycled notebook with pages lined and colored with organic-based inks.

On Monday, McCain gave an address on climate change in Portland, and even the state's Democratic governor, Ted Kulongoski, showed up to take a listen. Yesterday, McCain went to North Bend, Washington, just east of Seattle and at the foot of scenic Mt. Si, to continue touting his green plans and to take a quick hike in the woods (an outing that traveling press secretary Brooke Buchanan looks very unhappy with, as Jonathan Martin's photo shows).

Had he been wearing one of his new shirts, McCain might have rethought wearing them. What's the point, Politics Nation is left to wonder, of wearing a shirt that's biodegradable? Wouldn't it just fall off? Such environmentally-conscious fashion considerations are not exactly our forte. Perhaps it's time to invest in a biodegradable polo shirt.

The survey, taken by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, tested 400 likely primary voters between 5/8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 5%. State House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland attorney and activist Steve Novick were tested, alongside realtor Candy Neville.

Primary Election Matchup
Novick 29
Merkley 23
Neville 3

With a huge turnout expected, boosted by the long and contentious Democratic presidential primary which will be decided the same day, the 43% of the electorate that remains undecided could break either way. Add to that the fact that Oregon elections are conducted entirely by mail and turnout could approach off-year general election levels.

A separate robo-call poll conducted for a different television station shows Merkley ahead by a 31%-27% margin, though again undecided voters dominate the sample.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has already run ads in the state slamming Smith for his ties to the Bush Administration, has made clear their preference for Merkley, who has outraised Novick and has what they believe is a larger political base. Through the end of April, Merkley had raised $1.86 million and spent all but $151,000, while Novick had managed to raise just over $1 million and had $65,000 left to spend.

Novick has proven a solid campaigner, and he seems determined not to be shaken loose so easily. More liberal than Merkley, Novick, once overlooked, now finds himself with a significant shot at the nomination. Whichever candidate wins the all-mail primary next Tuesday will have a chance at defeating Smith, thanks to what is likely to be a big DSCC investment in the state. But Smith is used to being targeted. He's already raised nearly $5 million and still has $4.88 million in the bank in preparation for what could be another tough fight.