After flirting with big leads for the Democrats, the Gallup generic ballot swung back in the last two weeks toward the Republicans. This week it shows a 49%-43% lead for Republicans, matching the biggest lead for Republicans in the 60-year history of the Gallup generic ballot, set back in May. It also places Gallup squarely in the middle of the RCP Average, which currently shows a 6-point lead for Republicans.
Republicans also maintain a 16-point edge over Democrats in the "enthusiasm" measurement. Forty-four percent (44%) of Republicans consider themselves "very enthusiastic" about voting in the midterm elections, while only 28 percent of Democrats consider themselves "very enthusiastic" about voting. This suggests that if Gallup were to employ a tight likely voter screen, the electorate would show an even more pronounced tilt toward Republicans.
Sean Trende is Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.