Pollster Patrick Basham: Biden Victory Not Statistically Impossible, But Statistically Unlikely | Video | RealClearPolitics

Pollster Patrick Basham: Biden Victory Not Statistically Impossible, But Statistically Unlikely

|

Pollster and author of a piece calling the 2020 election "deeply puzzling" Patrick Basham told FNC's Mark Levin on Sunday evening that based on "non-polling metrics" it is unlikely that President Trump lost the 2020 election, specifically citing "historically low ballot rejection rates" and "not statistically impossible, but statistically implausible" trends.

He said "party registration trends, how the candidates did in their respective presidential primaries, the number of individual donations, [and] how much enthusiasm each candidate generated in the opinion polls."

"In 2016, they all indicated strongly that Donald Trump would win against most of the public polling," Basham said. "That was again the case in 2020. So if we are to accept that Biden won against the trend of all these non-polling metrics, it not only means that one of these metrics was inaccurate ... for the first time ever, it means that each one of these metrics was wrong for the first time and at the same time as all of the others."


"If you look at the results, you see how Donald Trump improved his national performance over 2016 by almost 20%," he said. "No incumbent president has ever lost a reelection bid if he's increased his votes [total]. Obama went down by three and a half million votes between 2008 and 2012, but still won comfortably."

"If you look at those results, you see that Donald Trump did very well, even better than four years earlier, with the white working class. He held his own with women and suburban voters against all of most of the polling expectations, did very well with Catholics, improved his vote among Jewish voters," he said. "He had the best minority performance for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1960, doing so well with African-Americans, and importantly with Hispanics."
Comment
Show comments Hide Comments

Latest Political Videos

Video Archives