President Trump could lose the 2020 popular vote by 5 million votes and still win reelection, some strategists say, according to CNN's Michael Smerconish.
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN: In the face of these odds, the president said something very interesting to “Time” this week, when asked about whether he should reach out to swing voters, the president said I think my base is so strong I’m not sure that I have to do that. Well, he’s not alone in thinking that such narrowcasting is possible. But there’s a very small margin for error if the Trump plan is to rely entirely on turnout, and not turn-about among must some voter opinions.
In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million while winning the Electoral College by 74. That thin margin enabled by upsets in three usually Democratic states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Trump won by a combined total of 77,744. "Axios" is reporting this week that some Democratic strategists are predicting that Trump will again lose the popular vote but might still win the Electoral College.
One scenario by an independent political reporter has Democrats winning the popular vote by as many as 5 million votes and taking back Michigan and Pennsylvania in the process, while Trump narrowly holds North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin. In that scenario, Trump wins the White House by one electoral vote.