Lichtman: Trump Will Win In 2020 "Unless Democrats Grow A Spine And Do Their Constitutional Duty" To Impeach


Professor Allan Lichtman, the man who has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, said President Trump is on track for another term unless Democrats do what is "politically right" and impeach him. In an interview with CNN's Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday, he said, "It's a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional, and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right."

BROOKE BALDWIN: He studies the past for a living but professor Allan Lichtman has also made a name for himself by looking into the future. The historian correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections. Look at all of the faces on your screen he called. For Reagan in 1984 all the way through President Trump in 2016's biggest political upset in modern U.S. history. Now Lichtman says, albeit with caution -- since nothing is final yet -- but that Trump will win again. But the professor also believes Democrats do have a shot if they impeach him. So let's talk about that. Professor Allan Lichtman is with me now. Professor, good to have you on.


BALDWIN: So you call it nine times, nine. And you say now -- and I know it's still early and this is not your official prediction -- but you think Trump is it 2020 unless what?

LICHTMAN: Unless the Democrats grow a spine and do their constitutional duty and move into an impeachment inquiry. And I think the evidence will show ultimately an impeachment. It's a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional, and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right.

Right now, based on my system, there has to be six negative factors against the party holding the White House, the Trump party to predict their defeat. They're down only three. But an impeachment would nail down the scandal key, a fourth key, it might trigger other keys like a real challenge to his re-nomination or a third party, enough to defeat him.

And let's not forget, impeachment is not just a vote in the House. It involves public hearings, as part of the impeachment inquiry. And what everyone forgets, a public trial in the Senate in which House prosecutors present evidence, present documents, make opening and closing statements. Now Richard Nixon before the public revelations was at 67 percent approval. It was public revelations of his misdeeds that drove him down to 25 percent.

BALDWIN: But here's the "but," professor, because if you look at it the other way, and you, by the way, very well made be correct.

But if you look at it the other way. If you consider that Trump is daring Democrats to impeach him, right. That he sees this as this potential galvanizing moment for his party and also those, importantly, who have been on the fence ahead of 2020, might that not backfire on Democrats politically?

LICHTMAN: Absolutely not. You know, why would Democrats believe an inveterate liar like Donald Trump? Obviously, he's trying to dissuade the Democrats from doing the one thing that could defeat him in 2020. He already has those committed Trump supporters. That's not nearly enough to win an election. And given all the evidence against him, not just talking about obstruction of justice, we're also talking about something Mueller did not opine on, possible collusion with the Russians. We're talking about two felonies that were -- in which Trump was implicated by the Southern District of New York for the campaign finance laws. We're talking about abuse of power for undermining the separation of powers. We're talking about violating the emoluments clause of the Constitution.

And in an impeachment trial -- which everyone forgets about -- Trump's lawyers have to make real arguments. They can't reline on Giuliani- type spin. And everyone thinks the impeachment of Bill Clinton backfired against the Republicans. But two things, the evidence and the gravity of the case against Donald Trump is infinitely stronger. And while the Republicans may have lost a few House seats after the impeachment --

BALDWIN: They won the White House!

LICHTMAN: They won the much bigger prize, the presidency, because the cloud of scandal blunted the vote for Al Gore.

BALDWIN: Professor Allan Lichtman, let's come back when it's prediction time, all right?

LICHTMAN: Anytime, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Deal. Deal. Professor, thank you very much.

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