University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016.
Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators.
"Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as a whole."
"This also reminds us that 2016 was a choice," he said. "It wasn't simply that people decided to vote for Donald Trump in a vacuum. Many of them were voting against Hillary Clinton. Maybe you dispute the premise of it, but essentially it's a two-pronged decision."
Chuck Todd agreed with the premise and said the media made the mistake of believing the 2016 election was a "referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on [Hillary Clinton]."
"I've always the said the biggest error we made, collectively, in the political handicapping world was just treating 2016 as a referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on her," Todd said.
After Todd acknowledging how wrong the media was in predicting the 2016 election, Sabato predicted there will be no red wave but a huge blue wave and the question is how big of a wave it will be.
"I think we're underestimating the history that the Republicans are facing in 2018, just normal history," Todd said.
"Trump has violated so many rules of politics and so many of the norms of politics that we hesitate to say that history shows us that 'X' will happen, therefore it will happen under Trump," Sabato said.
"I'm with you if you're saying that a red wave ain't going to happen," he continued. "It's just a question about how big the blue wave is. It could be a tsunami. It could be a middle-sized wave. It could be a small wave. But there's going to be a blue wave."