RCP co-founder and publisher Tom Bevan joins Fox News Channel's Shep Smith to break down the latest polling data.
Bevan says Florida is "an absolute coin-toss." "I hate to say 'hanging chads,' but it could be that close in Florida," he joked.
North Carolina could be called the "check-mate" state for Hillary Clinton, he explains. "North Carolina is crucial, and it's the one state, if you look at our RealClearPolitics average, it is the only state in the past few days where Hillary Clinton has actually improved her position. In all the other states she has lost ground and Trump gained ground except for North Carolina."
"That's a real problem for Trump because he has to replace those electoral votes. And he would to win Pennsylvania. Still have to win Florida, obviously, still have to win Ohio. But if he loses North Carolina, to your point, it's checkmate unless he can replace those electoral votes and the only place to get that amount is to win Pennsylvania and right now he is trail there by five and a half points."
About the impact of the latest FBI news on the race: "We still don't have enough data that has really captured what happened over the weekend, because the news broke late on Friday, but I think Republicans are looking at this as a potential shot in the arm. Part of the reason, though, is because of enthusiasm. If Donald Trump supporters are excited, if Donald Trump has momentum heading into the vote, that's going to benefit Republicans downticket. Likewise, if Clinton's voters are depressed by this news, if she is not able to get past it, and you have the marginal Clinton voters that were not sold on her initially. If they decide to stay home and don't vote for the Democrat, for Senate, that's going to hurt as well. So it is too early to tell but not it's necessarily looking like it's good news for Democrats downballot."