Tom Bevan: Does Trump Have Time To Narrow The Polling Gap?


RCP co-founder and executive editor Tom Bevan joins Fox Business Network's Neil Cavuto to discuss the latest Clinton-Trump polls.

TOM BEVAN: We're definitely seeing a tightening in the ABC/Washington Post poll, the Fox poll showed a tightening. There are other polls that aren't showing as much of a tightening, but overall if you look at our RCP Average, which is a pretty good indicator of where the trends are, Trump's trailing by 4-4.5 points now, it was over 5 a couple of days ago. And some of these battleground states as well, he is closing the gap just a little bit.

He's still behind, he's still got a long road to go with just ten days left, but he's not completely out of it right now...

The battle is still the battle. It is Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Trump has to win all three of those. And beyond that, he needs either Pennsylvania, or some combination of states to get him to 269-270...

CAVUTO: A lot of people mention the 1980 Carter-Reagan example where it just blew out in the final days. Any signs of anything like that? What do you look for in data... that might show a potential seismic shift.

BEVAN: At this point we have a different electorate. We are an evenly divided country and we have been since 2000.

There just aren't a lot of swing voters anymore. There aren't a lot of undecideds. It is hard to see how anyone is going to be able to-- Unless the bottom falls out for Trump or Clinton because of some revelation in the final days of the campaign that sends voters fleeing one of these candidates in droves, I think it is going to be close...

In an evenly divided country, it is unlike anything we've ever seen [to have two candidates who are so disliked]. And the way they are dividing up the electorate among race, class, and gender. It is just an unprecedented election. I don't think anyone knows how this is going to work with just two weeks left...

CAVUTO: If you're Donald Trump, is eleven days enough time to make up that ground... in the ABC poll, in less than a week he's narrowed it by 8-9 points. Do you hope that math continues? Can it?

BEVAN: We don't know. The other defining [element] of this election is that whoever is under the spotlight suffers. And Clinton is now under the spotlight with these WikiLeaks revelations. If that continues for another ten days, it could be enough. But we could see the spotlight shift back to Donald Trump and see his numbers go down.

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