Tom Bevan: Donald Trump Is Narrowing The Polling Gap


Fox Business Network host Stuart Varney interviews RCP cofounder Tom Bevan about the latest polls.

STUART VARNEY: Tom, this is the start of the fourth week of what I am calling the New Trump. He appears to be narrowing the gap. According to RCP is that accurate?

TOM BEVAN: Absolutely. Clinton left her convention and recieved a bounce, and in both of our averages -- the two way and the four way -- She was ahead by over 7%. She got up to a 7.5, almost 8% lead over Trump.

And that lead has now -- that lead has been whittled down to 2.5% in the four-way, and just over 3% in the two way race. So, no question that Trump has tightened, I think Trump had a pretty good week last week and Clinton had another week of bad news. The CNN poll [Monday] is the first poll we have seen that has some of that incorporated into it.

VARNEY: Is that the story within the story? A new Trump on focus, on target, on script, on teleprompter, doesn't say rash things --particularly-- versus the same old, same old Hillary reacting to endless scandals. Is that the story behind the narrowing of the gap in the polls?

BEVAN: I think that is part of it. You have had Trump, one of the things he did last week, if you buy the argument, as most people do and the data bares this out, that Trump's biggest hurdle to get over, his biggest drawback, is the idea he is unfit to be president, doesn't have the right temperament or experience. What we saw last week with his trip to Mexico; where his standing there, looks very presidential, that helped bolster him and leads me to think this debate coming up, where he stand on stage with Hillary Clinton is another pivotal moment in the campaign.

VARNEY: Can I ask you about the four way race, I'm not an expert in reading polls, but it seems to me that some of the voters that used to go for Gary Johnson are now swinging towards Donald Trump, in other words, the remaining Gary Johnson vote is taking votes from Hillary Clinton. Am I on the right track?

BEVAN: Each of the polls -- if you look at individual polls, you will seesome numbers bounce around, but if you look at our Real Clear Politics average, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have both been very stable, he's between eight and between 9 points, she has been between three or four points for a number of weeks, there has not been much variance when you abrogate all the data and see the average. So where Trump has made up ground has been a little bit among Republicans and Independents and that is where Hillary Clinton has lost altitude.

VARNEY: Have you ever seen an election like this? The answer is no you haven't!

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