RCP's Sean Trende: Trump Could Win With Only A Modest Increase In The White Vote

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RCP elections analyst Sean Trende speaks with MSNBC's Steve Kornacki about Donald Trump and white identity politics.

SEAN TRENDE, REALCLEARPOLITICS: You have to remember that non-Hispanic whites are going to be about 71% of the electorate -- that is a lot of people. That's the game plan [for Trump], to try to get that up from Romney's 59% to 61-62%. If he does that, especially in the Great Lakes states, it will be good enough for him to win...

The short term thing to look at is that in 2014, Republicans were up around 62%. You say that is a midterm electorate and fine, that is an important distinction. But if you look at the polling right now, just the people who say they are not going to vote, he is pushing up against those numbers. In fact, the lastest Quinnipiac poll, an ABC/Washington Post has him among people who are going to vote, near 63-64% of the [white] vote. No guarantee that sticks, it could go higher, I wouldn't be surprised if it went lower, but it is possible...

Are the midterm elections the outlier or are the presidential elections the outlier... Or is it the Obama effect combined with some white voters who decided to stay home. Everyone has opinions, but we just have to wait and see...

If we do see Donald Trump push the white vote up into 63-64%, it suggests that as whites move towards minority status that they become more aware of their whiteness, and it plays into politics. It is a disheartening and dangerous trend, but it might be something we don't have any control over.

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