Sean Trende: Donald Trump's Pathway to The Republican Nomination


RCP senior elections analyst Sean Trende appeared on Monday morning's Fox & Friends to break down the polls in states which have yet to vote in this year's Republican presidential primary.

SEAN TRENDE, REALCLEARPOLITICS SENIOR ELECTIONS ANALYST: You know, Trump has had a bad month. He's only gotten a quarter of the delegates since this became a three-man race. Things will turn around for him in the next couple weeks. We expect him to come pretty close to sweeping the delegates over the Northeast -- places like New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut. That puts him over about 1,000 delegates. About a 200 shortfall.

BRIAN KILMEADE: You have Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island and New York and Connecticut all must-win states for Donald Trump in red.

Let's move over to the midwest. You say this is the pathway for Donald Trump, and these are the must-win. Indiana likely to win and it's a must-win, but he doesn't expect to do well in South Dakota and Nebraska.

TRENDE: That's right. Part of the problem is South Dakota and Nebraska are winner-take-all states. So even if he loses by one vote he lsoes all of the delegates there. Indiana is an interesting case because demographically it's not that great for him. The question mark, though, is if John Kasich is still in the race. He's the governor -- popular governor of a neighboring state. That could bleed votes away from Ted Cruz and allow Trump to overperform there when he really needs to do if he wants to get to 1,237...

KILMEADE: Let's move out to the west where we look at a June contest. You say must-win, California, Oregon, Washington, as well as New Mexico.

TRENDE: Yes. Those are states that we really don't know too much about. They typically don't have Republican primaries of note because things are usually wrapped up by now.

What's really interesting is California awards almost all of its delegates by congressional district, so the voters -- this race is actually going to be decided by the three or four Republicans in Nancy Pelosi's district or whoever votes in a Republican primary in Watts and Compton. Which is kind of a fitting end for this process I think.

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