Tom Bevan: Five Most Likely Outcomes For GOP Convention


RCP co-founder Tom Bevan spoke to Fox News Channel's Megyn Kelly on Friday about the five most likely outcomes for the Repubican primary:

TOM BEVAN: If you look at scenario #1, I'd rate this at about 25% --a one-in-four chance that Trump acutally gets outright 1,237 delegates. That will become a lot clearer after New York in about 11 days. If he can stay above 50% and sweep up a lot of those delegates that will boost him going into the other East coast primaries.

The other state to watch is Indiana, that is being sort of overlooked. If Trump can win in Indiana, that'll set him up for a pretty good position in California... He's not going to get there by much, it is going to come down to just a few delegates.

MEGYN KELLY: It is going to come down to [the final day of primary elections on] June 7, at best. Nobody is getting this nomination befor June 7 at the earliest.

TOM BEVAN: That's right. If you look at scenario #2, where Trump comes up short, I would give that a little higher odds...

KELLY: Scenario 2 is we get to June 7, the voting is done, and Trump is the leader but he doesn't have 1,237. How does he make up the difference between June 7 and the convetion in late July.

TOM BEVAN: He's going to have to woo these delegates... Take them out to dinner, backroom deal them. He says he is a dealmaker, he is going to have to prove it...

It is going to matter how close he gets to the [1,237] number. And I would use 1,200 as a break-even point... If he is under 1,200 I think it is going to be a lot harder.

If he's got momentum heading into and beyond California, I think it will be a lot easier for him to sweep up some of these delegates...

MEGYN KELLY: What about this other scenario where Cruz and Trump unite...

Do you think there is actually any chance these two men wind up combining for a president/VP combo?

TOM BEVAN: It seems unlikely but we have had stranger bedfellows. JFK hated Lyndon Johnson and ended up with him on the ticket, so we have seen stuff like this happen...

Imagine this Megyn. Trump, I agree he gets it on the first ballot or he is done. If Cruz gets denied on the second ballot, then he might be done. The more ballots they go, the more pressure will be on these delegates to finda compromise candidate. Trump and Cruz may end up on the outside looking in.

Maybe on the third [vote] Trump comes to Cruz and says, let's pool our delegates. Have a unified ticket. And that's how, a cmall chance of that, maybe 10%, but it is definitely something that could happen.

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