CARL CAMERON, FOX NEWS: Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid tried to reassure Democrats during the August recess that they could prevent Republicans from winning the majority if the election were held now.
SEN. HARRY REID: They'd have to pick up six seats, and it would be very, very hard for them to do that.
CAMERON: But the election's 10 weeks from tomorrow, and Democrats who, earlier this year, thought they could defend their majority, now fear GOP momentum could cost them even more than six seats.
JOE TRIPPI: I think we all thought four was in the bag, but they were going to have a tough time getting to five or six. You know, if it's a wave, it could get to 10.
CAMERON: South Dakota's popular Gov. Mike Rounds has a double-digit lead over Democrat Rick Weiland. Even Reid admits the GOP is likely to win that seat. Montana Republican Congressman Steve Daines is a virtual shoe-in since plagiarism charges drove incumbent Democrat John Walsh out of the race. His replacement on the ballot, state lawmaker Amanda Curtis, calls her inexperience an asset. In West Virginia, Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is comfortably ahead of Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. Arkansas' first-term GOP Congressman Tom Cotton has inched ahead of two-term vulnerable Democrat Mark Pryor. In North Carolina, freshman Senate Democrat Kay Hagan has slipped slightly behind GOP House Speaker Tom Tillis. And in Louisiana, Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy has a slight edge over Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu.
If 2014 becomes a referendum on Obama and a wave of GOP victories sweep across the country, Democrats in at least four other states could get bounced.
ED ROLLINS: The momentum's going our way. The president certainly is a drag on the Democrat ticket. I think we can pick up the six, maybe even a couple more.
CAMERON: In New Hampshire, Republican Scott Brown has pulled into a virtual tie with incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. Iowa Republican Joni Ernst has virtually tied it up with Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley. In Colorado, Republican Congressman Cory Gardner is steadily gaining on Senate Democrat Mark Udall, while Alaska's incumbent Democrat Mark Begich is clinging to a slight lead over GOP challenger Dan Sullivan.
Apart from their vulnerable incumbents surviving, Democrats' only other hope is to win two targeted Republican seats: Republican leader Mitch McConnell's in Kentucky and Georgia, where Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn, who's been distancing herself from President Obama and recently suggested she may not even back Reid for Democratic leader next year.