CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: The NBC poll asked if you would be more or less inclined to support a candidate who supports Obama or [one] who opposes Obama? There was about a 20-point spread. So, if you supported Obama, you were in deep trouble. Look, I don't think there's any question. Of course there were a lot of local issues, but the one issue that permeates all the discussions is Obamacare which in and of itself is not just a symbol but it's the embodiment of Obama's entire domestic policy: overreaching, very expensive, intrusive, and I think the verdict is in on this.
And if you have a candidate like [Alex] Sink who was not in Congress and thus didn't have to be committed one side or the other. In other words, hadn't already cast a vote. It is clear that if you are a candidate who doesn't have a voting record in Congress on this, you should just say you are against it. She decided she would say I want to fix it. That is not a winning formula. There's only one caveat here. I agree that she had all the advantages and Jolly had none, essentially.
He was a lousy candidate and he is a lobbyist, but special elections lower turn out. This one had about a third the turnout of the midterm election in 2010, even less if you compare it to the turnout in 2012. So, if you compare the 2010 and assume that turnout will be the same this year -- so if you have a lower turnout, you obviously are getting more energized voters. And it's Obamacare that would energize the person who would go out and vote. So it doesn't necessarily translate into an automatic victory at the end of the year if you matchup the two candidates.