BILL O'REILLY: In the Impact Segment tonight, a new poll from CNN says the Republican party is surging. The poll asks respondents to choose between the Democrat or Republican in their Congressional district without identifying any candidates, it's just generics. 49% picked a Republican, 47% a Democrat. But just one month ago, Democrats won that poll 50% to 42%. Joining us from Austin, Texas, Karl Rove predicted this might happen. But this poll doesn't very mean much a year out from the midterm elections, does it?
KARL ROVE: Well, it means something. First of all, you are right about the movement. Let's take the RealClearPolitics average. As of today the RealClearPolitics average is 43% Republican, 42% Democrat. One month ago, it was 40% Republican, 47% Democrat. So it's not just the CNN poll. The decline in Democrat support and growth in Republican support is seen in an average of all the polls on the generic ballot.
Let's take a look at thought at 2010. A year out, the Democrats led 47% to 42%. By election day of 2010, it was 52% to 45%, a 7 point advantage for the Republicans. At this point, one year out from the election, the Republicans were down 5, today they are up one in the average.
You know, we don't know what's going to happen a year from now, but I do think that unlike your two previous guests that the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare, is going to continue to be bad news for the Democrats throughout next year. The economy is not particularly good. The president's ratings are low. All of these things combined to point towards a lower number for the Democrats and a higher number for the Republicans next year.
Remember, it's really bad for the Democrats because these are are national averages, and the Democrats have seven seats up in the Senate that are in states won by Mitt Romney, 10 of them that he won by -- excuse me, six of them that he won by 10 points or more. And the national numbers are likely to be much better for the Democrats than they are in the seven battleground states in the Senate where the numbers are likely to be very good for Republicans and very, very bad for Democrats.