News & Election Videos

RealClearPolitics VP Watch

RCP Staff

« Obama's Four VP Principles | VP Watch Home Page | Obama Talks VP »

More Odds For McCain

RCP's Reid Wilson gave the odds on McCain's VP here, arguing that Tim Pawlenty was the favorite. Now we can match him against the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, who thinks Romney has the best odds:

1. Mitt Romney: Our guess is that McCain is in the process of figuring out whether he can live with sharing the ticket with Romney. On paper, Romney makes the most sense for McCain's second-in-command. He helps McCain geographically (Michigan and New Hampshire), on issues (the economy is Romney's strong suit) and financially (Romney may well be the most able fundraiser in the Republican party at the moment). But, McCain is a politician who often goes on instinct and his personal feelings (or lack thereof) for Romney might well make the difference. (Previous ranking: 1)

As Cillizza notes, Romney looks good on paper. He always has. Which is part of his problem. During the primaries, Romney couldn't live up to how good he looked on paper.

Cillizza also has his odds for the Democrats, giving the top spot to Evan Bayh:

1. Evan Bayh: The Indiana Senator is the safest choice available to Obama. Bayh has been elected statewide five times (once as secretary of state, twice each as governor and Senator) in a Midwestern State dominated by Republicans in recent presidential elections. He is a steady (though uncharismatic) campaigner almost certain not to make any major mistakes on the trail. And, at 52, he furthers Obama's generational change argument against McCain. But, does Obama want to make a "safe" choice? (Previous ranking: 1)

Of course Bayh's problem is that he doesn't fill out Obama's need for a strong national-security/military running mate.