Decoding 2016: The State of the Race

Most Recent Articles

The Puzzling Gap Between State and National Polls - David Byler

Experienced Hand Guides GOP House Races - James Arkin

Is There a State-National Polling Discrepancy? - Sean Trende

Elections Analyst David Byler and I have both noted an apparent discrepancy between state and national polls, with Donald Trump seemingly running better in the former than the latt...

Campaigns Gear Up for July Conventions - Caitlin Huey-Burns

Tuesday: Finale to an Extraordinary 2016 Primary - Alexis Simendinger & Caitlin Huey-Burns

Lujan's Plan to Increase Dems in House: Target Trump - James Arkin

What Was Bubba Up To? - Chris Stirewalt, FOX News

On the heels of a private meeting between Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch the question becomes: what is he up to?...

These Rust Belt Democrats Could Win Trump the White House - Keith O'Brien, Politico

They used to be Democrats. Now they really could hand Donald Trump the White House....

Brexit and the Rising Shades of Trumpism - Clarence Page, Chicago Tribune

Many people see striking similarities between Donald Trump 's presidential campaign and the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union . One of those people is Donald Trump....

The Re-Re-Re-Re-Reboot of Donald Trump - Molly Ball, The Atlantic

For the first time, the Republican nominee’s operation shows real signs of changing course. But can changing the campaign change the candidate?...

Don't Bend Your Knee to Trump, Evangelicals - David French, National Review

Evangelical leaders should think twice before they bend their knees to Donald Trump. He represents the subversion of all of their most cherished values....

Clinton, Sanders: Talk After Former Wins D.C. Primary - Dave Weigel, Washington Post

Repeat After Me: The Polls Are Not Broken - Charles Franklin, Washington Post

Are the polls broken? A steady stream of articles over the past nine months has examined the challenges of the polling industry, pointing to highly visible failures, the rise of ce...

Clinton Policies to End Pay Gap Would Just Make it Larger - Michael Barone, Examiner

Trump Polls: You Can't Wish Them Away - Jon Cohen & Mark Blumenthal, Medium

Every time Donald Trump has won another contest, or risen in the polls, or survived another round of criticism, a chorus of voices has risen up to protest: This can’t possibl...

Democrats Confronting Dangerous Divisions Within Party - Margaret Talev, Bloomberg

Hillary Clinton’s claim of a narrow victory in Kentucky and Bernie Sanders’ win in Oregon illustrated a deepening rift among Democrats with the potential to hobble the ...

The Bernie Sanders Trainwreck - Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg

How can his supporters protect his mission? By voting against him now....

Our Insane Addiction to Polls - Frank Bruni, New York Times

REMEMBER the poll last week that had Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by three points?No, you’re thinking. I’ve got it wrong. Sanders was up by ...

Polls Aren't Skewed, Udall Losing in CO - Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight

Gardner’s chance of winning has risen to 80 percent. He has led in all but one of 15 nonpartisan sponsored surveys released since mid-September, and by an average of 3.4 percenta...

Why Do GOP Pollsters Suck? - Kristen Soltis Anderson, The Daily Beast

The last few years have regrettably made the phrase “Republican pollster” less a job title than a punch line. From the 2012 election, where many in the GOP were stunned...

Andrew Sullivan Keeps It Too Real - Elspeth Reeve, The Atlantic

President Obama's disappointing debate performance has split Democrats into two camps: those who are openly panicking, and those who want the first group to just shut up. It's...

Exit Poll Cut Back: Penny Wise & Pound Foolish? - Steve Singiser, Daily Kos

As the curator of the Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap, one trend in the 2012 electoral cycle that has not escaped my attention has been the relative paucity of polling in this pre...

Are Polls Skewed Against Republicans? - Steven Shepard, National Journal

It has become a recurring refrain among some Republican pundits and observers each time a new poll shows President Obama or downballot Democrats doing well: Check the party composi...

Republicans Aim at 'Skewed' Polls - Jonathan Easley, The Hill

The Romney campaign and other Republicans say polls showing President Obama with a significant lead over their candidate are inaccurate. They argue many mainstream polls skew ...

The Silly Mantra of Obama's Inevitability - Jeffrey Anderson, Weekly Standard

Are Media Polls Oversampling Democrats? - Jay Cost, Townhall

Republicans, by and large, are frustrated with recent polls of the presidential election because they think Democrats are being oversampled. Many pollsters respond by saying that ...

Why Are the Media Juicing Polls for Obama? - John Nolte, Big Journalism

It's that simple. Because these polls are not only telling us that Romney is losing OH, PA, and FL by insurmountable margins; these polls are also telling us that Democrat tur...

Polls Based Off 2008 Dem Turnout Will Be Wrong - Jim Lee, Susquehanna

Recently two polls conducted by our firm showing President Obama narrowly leading Mitt Romney by 1 point (48% to 47%, sponsored by the Republican State Committee of Penna.), and a ...

Nate Silver's Pretend Math - Neil Stevens, RedState

America the Cautious - John Zogby, Forbes

I have been quoted in many places, but one of my favorites is on a Starbucks cup. The coffee company asked me to contribute a quote to its "The Way I See It" series, which features...

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RealClearPolitics will covene a panel of politics and polling experts to discuss the current state of the race. The panel will highlight insights on the latest election trends, illuminate major and minor shifts in the electorate and deliver analysis of polling trends and data to explain those shifts.

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July 28, 4 – 5:30 PM: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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