News & Election Videos

June 26, 2009

Oregon polling (and the Tao of Steve)

Democrats look to be in solid shape to hold onto the Oregon governorship, according to a new poll commissioned by the Daily Kos.

The Research 2000 survey shows former Gov. John Kitzhaber and Rep. Peter DeFazio both holding leads over former Republican Sen. Gordon Smith and Rep. Greg Walden. Smith, however, looks like the less-viable GOP nominee, with his unfavorable rating (48 percent) higher than his favorable rating (39 percent).

Kitzhaber leads Smith 46 to 37 percent, and leads Walden, 44 to 38 percent. DeFazio leads Smith by 10 points and leads Walden by eight points.

None of the four high-profile candidates have announced their future plans, though all have been exploring the race.  The winner will succeed Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D-Ore.), who is term-limited from running again.

Another potential Democratic candidate? Consultant Steve Novick (one of the Scorecard’s all-time favorites), who gave Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) a run for his money in last year’s Democratic Senate primary.

The vast majority (79 percent) of Oregon voters, however, aren’t familiar with Novick and his colorful antics — which would change if he jumped in the race.  The poll shows Novick losing to all prospective Republican challengers, but that's mostly a function of his lesser name identification.