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January 09, 2009

A Boxer rebellion?

With Jeb Bush and Chris Matthews out of the Senate picture, one big name remains as a possible 2010 candidate: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But if Schwarzenegger decided to run against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), he would be far-from-assured of a victory, according to a new poll commissioned by the Daily Kos.

The poll shows Boxer leading Schwarzenegger by nine points in a hypothetical matchup, 49 to 40 percent. And Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are mediocre: A 51 percent majority of Californians view Schwarzenegger unfavorably, while only 42 percent view him favorably.

Boxer still will likely face a competitive race if she faces a credible Republican opponent. Her net approval rating is just two percent -- nearly as many Californians view Boxer unfavorably (46 percent) as those that view her favorably (48 percent).

The poll, conducted by Research 2000, interviewed 600 likely voters and has a four percent margin of error.

Schwarzenegger is term-limited from running for re-election in 2010, and it appears that most leading California Republicans (the latest being Meg Whitman) have more interest in running for the open governorship than for Senate.