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October 20, 2008

More Monday Polls

Mississippi Senate

The number of African American voters will determine the winner of one of the state's Senate seats, a new poll shows. The DailyKos/Research 2000 poll surveyed 600 likely voters between 10/14-15 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Senator Roger Wicker, the Republican, and ex-Governor Ronnie Musgrove were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Wht / Blk)
Wicker.....47 / 6 / 85 / 45 / 72 / 5
Musgrove...46 / 88 / 7 / 49 / 24 / 83

Black voters made up 37% of the sample size, a slightly higher percentage than they made up in 2004. If excitement over Obama boosts turnout, Musgrove could snag the seat.

North Carolina Senate/Governor

North Carolina has the potential to be a very bad state for Republicans come Election Day, but at least the party has a chance to steal a governor's mansion. A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll conducted 10/14-15 surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, and Democrat Kay Hagan were tested in the Senate race, and Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory were tested in the governor's race.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hagan....49 / 82 / 10 / 46 / 46 / 52 (+7 from last, 9/10)
Dole.....45 / 12 / 85 / 45 / 49 / 41 (-3)

Perdue...48 / 80 / 10 / 44 / 45 / 51 (+6)
McCrory..43 / 10 / 84 / 43 / 47 / 39 (-4)

Obama....46 / 76 / 8 / 47 / 42 / 50 (+8)
McCain...44 / 14 / 84 / 40 / 49 / 39 (-9)

Despite ads being run against her by conservative groups like the Chamber of Commerce and Freedom's Watch, Hagan's favorable rating is a very impressive 55% to 35% unfavorable. Dole hasn't led a poll for two weeks, and hasn't led a live-call poll for a month.

Oregon Senate

Republican Gordon Smith is falling farther behind, according to the latest DailyKos/Research 2000 poll. Conducted 10/14-15, the poll surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Merkley...47 / 81 / 6 / 45 / 44 / 50 (+2 from last, 9/24)
Smith.....41 / 6 / 83 / 41 / 44 / 38 (+1)

Obama.....53 / 85 / 15 / 53 / 51 / 55
McCain....38 / 7 / 78 / 35 / 42 / 34

Smith has a net-unfavorable rating, 40% favorable to 47% unfavorable.

Wyoming At-Large

Wyoming saw a very close race two years ago, and an open seat this year looks like it will be just as competitive. A Research 2000 poll conducted for DailyKos surveyed 500 likely voters between 10/14-16 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and 2006 Democratic nominee Gary Trauner were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Trauner....44 / 87 / 14 / 58 / 41 / 47
Lummis.....43 / 11 / 65 / 33 / 47 / 39

Both candidates, facing a dead heat, are popular; 57% see Lummis favorably and 55% see Trauner the same way. Still, coattails could drag Lummis across the finish line. Not only is John McCain leading by a 58%-35% margin, Senators Mike Enzi (61%-34%) and John Barasso (57%-36%), both up for election this year, lead their Democratic rivals by wide margins.