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September 18, 2008

Shaheen Lead Stable

Even as other polls show a tighter race amid a new GOP advertising blitz, former Democratic New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen retains her sizable lead over incumbent Senator John Sununu, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by American Research Group, surveyed 600 likely voters between 9/13-15 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Sununu and Shaheen were tested among a sample made up of 30% Republicans, 28% Democrats and 42% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Shaheen.....52 / 82 / 13 / 59 (no change from last, 8/08)
Sununu......40 / 6 / 80 / 35 (-1)

ARG, a firm that has done work for Republican candidates in the past, has had a bit of an erratic year with the New Hampshire Senate race. Polls that look like outliers on both sides have showed Sununu leading by eleven points, in December 2007, and Shaheen up by as much as twenty-two, in July.

But the last two ARG surveys have each showed Shaheen with a low-double digit lead. Both candidates are up with television advertisements, as are the Democratic and Republican senatorial committees.