News & Election Videos

September 23, 2008

Poll Dump, Part I

So many polls, so little time.

Colorado Senate

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall continues to lead the race for retiring Senator Wayne Allard's seat, according to a new poll out today. The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University for WashingtonPost.com and the Wall Street Journal, surveyed 1,418 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.6%. Udall and Republican ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Udall.......48 / 86 / 13 / 49 / 44 / 53 (+4 from last, 7/22)
Schaffer....40 / 8 / 80 / 31 / 46 / 34 (-4)

Polls have largely showed Udall leading, but not by an overwhelming margin. His lead comes from Hispanic voters, who favor the Democrat by a 64%-21% margin, while white voters are split 45%-44% in favor of Schaffer.

Idaho 01

Responding to a poll conducted for DailyKos released yesterday, Democratic businessman Walt Minnick has put out his own poll showing him leading Rep. Bill Sali. The poll, conducted by Harstad Strategic Research for Minnick's campaign, surveyed 405 likely voters from 9/9-11 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Sali and Minnick were tested.

General Election Matchup
Minnick.......43
Sali..........38

About as many people in the district see Sali favorably (37%) as those who see him unfavorably (36%), and his job approval ratings, of 28% excellent or good and 52% only fair or poor, are terrible. Republicans will note that Minnick has been on television far longer than Sali, though Sali has proven a poor fundraiser and will be outspent by his challenger this year.

Both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have reserved ad time in the district, and the DCCC is already up on the air.

Illinois 11

What was once assumed to be an easy Democratic pickup may be more work than the party had hoped, according to a new poll for Republican businessman Martin Ozinga. The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Ozinga campaign, surveyed 400 likely voters between 9/17-18 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. State Senator Debbie Halvorson, the Democrat, and Ozinga were tested.

General Election Matchup
Halvorson.......38
Ozinga..........36

McCain..........44
Obama...........43

Ozinga was the emergency replacement when the winner of the GOP primary pulled out of the race. So far, he has impressed Republicans with his fundraising, and Democrats who were once certain they would pick up retiring Rep. Jerry Weller's seat are now far more cautious in their assessments of the race.

Halvorson remains the favorite, but her association with unpopular Governor Rod Blagojevich (who sports a 15% favorable and a 72% unfavorable rating) could drag her down.

Louisiana 06

Conventional wisdom suggests that Louisiana Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux is in serious trouble. But a new poll conducted for the Democrat's campaign seems to call that conclusion into question. The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research for Cazayoux's campaign, surveyed 500 likely voters between 9/17-21 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Cazayoux, Republican nominee State Senator Bill Cassidy and independent State Rep. Michael Jackson were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Wht / Blk)
Cazayoux.......48 / 43 / 59 (+5 from last, 7/08)
Cassidy........32 / 45 / 3 (-4)
Jackson........ 9 / 1 / 26 (-4)

Race will play a huge factor in the contest, and with Barack Obama atop the ticket, African American turnout is likely to be high. But with Jackson failing to gain more than just a quarter of the African American vote, Cazayoux suddenly doesn't look as vulnerable as he once did.

Cazayoux has been on the air in recent weeks touting his work for the district after Hurricane Gustav. Cassidy has only just begun his own advertising, so expect this race to close some.