News & Election Videos

September 19, 2008

Poll Central

In which the writers dump as many polls as possible on you, our favored readers.

Colorado 04

Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave faces another tough race for re-election, and she may actually be trailing, according to a new poll. The survey, taken for EMILY's List by Grove Insight, polled 400 likely voters between 9/8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Musgrave and former Congressional aide Betsy Markey were tested.

General Election Matchup
Markey........47
Musgrave......38

The poll shows 40% of district voters view the incumbent favorably and 40% seeing her unfavorably. Just 31% say they have a positive impression of her job performance while 55% view it negatively. It may be a poll conducted for a Democratic organization by a Democratic firm, but the numbers still spell trouble for Republican Musgrave.

Georgia Senate

Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss looks like a safe bet for re-election, according to a new poll for his campaign. The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 800 likely voters on 9/8-9 and 9/11 for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Chambliss, ex-State Rep. Jim Martin, the Democrat, and Libertarian Allen Buckley were tested.

General Election Matchup
Chambliss.......52
Martin..........33
Buckley..........4

The poll is right about in line with other surveys that show the first-term Republican trouncing his opposition.

Maryland 01

State Senator Andy Harris beat Republican Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the primary. Now, a Democratic poll shows Harris running neck and neck with his Democratic rival. The Grove Insight poll for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee surveyed 400 likely voters between 9/9-12 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Harris and Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil were tested.

General Election Matchup
Harris.......36
Kratovil.....36

Democrats hoped to be able to steal the seat from the more conservative Harris, and Gilchrest has gone as far as to back Kratovil. But the party hasn't put serious money into the race, and Kratovil is going to face an uphill climb in a district John McCain is likely to carry easily.

New Hampshire Governor

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch still looks set to cruise to a third two-year term, according to a new American Research Group poll. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between 9/13-15 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Lynch, a Democrat, and Republican State Senator Joe Kenney were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Lynch........62 / 94 / 26 / 66 (+4 from last, 8/20)
Kenney.......31 / 3 / 64 / 25 (-1)

Lynch's big win in 2006 helped pull freshmen Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter to wins over incumbent Republicans. Could a big margin this year help Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen in her bid against Republican Senator John Sununu?

Virginia Senate

Mark Warner retains his big lead in a new poll, making him perhaps the most likely Democrat to win a GOP-held seat. The poll, conducted by Christopher Newport University, surveyed 500 registered voters 9/10-14 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Warner and ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore were tested.

General Election Matchup
Warner........54
Gilmore.......30

As The Fix himself notes, the two candidates held a televised debate yesterday. Warner is so far ahead that even debates don't matter.