News & Election Videos

September 26, 2008

Granite State Poll Good, Mostly, For Dems

A few early-morning surveys from two pollsters who know a thing or two about New Hampshire:

New Hampshire Senate

Another poll shows Senator John Sununu in hot water. The Research 2000 poll surveyed 600 likely voters between 9/22-24 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Republican Sununu, ex-Governor Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic nominee, and Libertarian Ken Blevins were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Shaheen....50 / 84 / 11 / 53 / 46 / 54
Sununu.....41 / 8 / 78 / 39 / 46 / 36
Blevins.... 2 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 1

The Senate candidates are essentially tied in the more conservative First District, which includes Manchester and the Seacoast. But Shaheen leads by a huge 56%-37% margin in the Second District, which takes in Nashua, the north country and the state's western counties along the Vermont border.

New Hampshire 01

One of the most endangered freshmen Democrats is tied with the Republican she beat two years ago, according to the same poll. The Research 2000 poll, conducted for the Concord Monitor, surveyed 300 likely voters 9/22-24 for a margin of error of +/- 6%. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, the Republican nominee, and Libertarian Robert Kingsbury were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Shea-Porter...44 / 80 / 8 / 46 / 40 / 48
Bradley.......43 / 8 / 79 / 42 / 50 / 36
Kingsbury......2 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 1

A second poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, surveyed 252 likely voters between 9/14-21 for a margin of error of +/- 6.2%.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Bradley.......45 / 8 / 84 / 40 / 52 / 39 (-1 from last, 7/08)
Shea-Porter...42 / 84 / 3 / 32 / 33 / 50 (+2)

The statistically-insignificant leads each candidate holds is more evidence that Republicans have a real shot of picking up one of the two Granite State seats the party lost in 2006. National Democrats are spending heavily to save Shea-Porter's job.

New Hampshire 02

Meanwhile, Shea-Porter's colleague is in much better position. Research 2000 surveyed 300 likely voters 9/22-24 for a margin of error of +/- 6%, testing Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, Republican radio host Jennifer Horne and Libertarian Chester LaPointe.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hodes......47 / 78 / 12 / 48 / 44 / 50
Horn.......34 / 6 / 63 / 35 / 38 / 30
LaPoint.... 3 / 1 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 2

The Granite State Poll conducted by UNH surveyed 271 likely voters 9/14-21 for a margin of error of +/- 6%. Hodes and Horn were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hodes......38 / 72 / 2 / 32 / 36 / 40 (-5 from last, 7/08)
Horn.......26 / 5 / 52 / 24 / 30 / 23 (+3)

Unlike the First District, Republicans weren't able to recruit a top-notch challenger to face Hodes, who beat moderate Republican Charlie Bass in 2006. The Second District is more Democratic than the First, and Horn is more conservative than Bass, complicating her bid for Congress.