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September 15, 2008

Dem Has That Keller Instinct

Democrats had a good year in Florida in 2006, picking up two Republican-held seats and coming an inch away in a third. This year, Democrats have a chance to pick up another seat, a new poll shows.

The poll, conducted for attorney Alan Grayson by The Kitchens Group, surveyed 500 likely voters between 9/3-6 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Rep. Ric Keller, a four-term Republican, and Grayson were tested.

General Election Matchup
Grayson..........44
Keller...........40

McCain...........44
Obama............44

Keller had a scare of a race in 2006, beating Democratic businessman Charlie Stuart by a narrow 53%-46% margin. This year, that election looks like it may have taken a toll. Just 43% of voters in the Orlando-based district see the incumbent in a favorable light, while 35% view him unfavorably.

Stuart ran again this year, as did attorney Mike Smith, who initially had some Washington Democrats excited. But Grayson dumped a whopping $1.1 million into his own race and easily beat his two closest opponents with almost 49% of the vote. Stuart won 28% and 17% went for Smith in the August 26 contest.

Pre-primary filings show Keller had a big fundraising advantage as of the first week of August, but if Grayson continues self-funding, he could give Democrats a shot at picking up another seat.