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August 20, 2008

Terry Up, Under 50 In Dem Poll

It was a sign of nervous Republicans when Rep. Lee Terry suggested he would win re-election because of "Obama-Terry voters." The Nebraska Republican leads a new poll conducted for his Democratic rival and posted first by Swing State Project, but he may have been right: In one of just two states that awards part of its electoral vote haul by Congressional District, Barack Obama is running just four points behind John McCain.

The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research for businessman Jim Esch, surveyed 600 likely voters between 7/27-8/2 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Terry and Esch were tested, along with Obama and McCain.

General Election Matchup
Terry......................47
Esch.......................38

Generic GOPer......42
Generic Dem..........37

McCain...................46
Obama....................42

At first glance, the numbers should worry Republicans; it's a close race two years after Esch finished about ten points behind Terry and four years after President Bush beat John Kerry by 22. But the Omaha-based district leans Republican, and the GOP is leading all three matchups. Terry is under the 50% mark, but he's still well ahead.

National Democrats have yet to name Esch to any of their top challengers programs, while Terry has already raised about as much as he did in the 2006 cycle. Terry doesn't have to pull a Gordon Smith and line up as close to Obama as he possibly can just yet.