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August 15, 2008

Hayes Leading NC Rematch

Republican Rep. Robin Hayes won his re-election bid in 2006 by just over 300 votes, but this time he could be in better shape against the same Democratic opponent. A new poll conducted for his campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee shows Hayes leading teacher and businessman Larry Kissell by a substantial margin.

The poll, conducted for Hayes' campaign and the NRCC by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely voters between 8/4-5 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Hayes and Kissell, the Democratic nominee, were tested.

General Election Matchup
Hayes..........50
Kissell..........40

McCain.........47
Obama.........42

Hayes retains a good favorable rating, with 51% of the district seeing him in a positive light and 20% viewing him negatively, while Kissell has a ways to go to build his name recognition; just 14% have a favorable impression of the Democrat while 11% see him unfavorably. With Barack Obama seriously competing in the Tar Heel State, though, the district that gave President Bush a nine-point margin in 2004 looks like it will be another close race.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is expected to deliver aid to Kissell this year, having reserved a whopping $1.6 million in ad time already. In 2006, the committee didn't spend significantly in the district, an error the party regretted when the race ended in such a narrow loss for Kissell.