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August 28, 2008

Carney Leading By Wide Margin In Own Poll

If a Democratic poll is accurate, freshman Rep. Chris Carney is cruising toward a second term this November. An easy win for Carney would be a surprise, considering John McCain is expected to easily win the northeast Pennsylvania district by a wide margin.

The poll, taken for Carney's campaign by Momentum Analysis, surveyed 400 likely voters between 8/19-21 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Carney and businessman Chris Hackett were tested.

General Election Matchup

Hackett emerged from a brutal primary against another businessman, Dan Meuser, during which the Club for Growth ran ads on Hackett's behalf. The negative impression some voters got from that bitter battle could be holding Hackett's vote count down.

But Carney has to be concerned about the effect the top of the ticket will have on voters in his district. President Bush won the seat by twenty points in 2004, and Hillary Clinton outpaced Obama by a three-to-one margin in the state's April primary.

Carney has proven an able fundraiser and has compiled one of the most conservative records among House Democrats. But the district leans so dramatically to the right that it's hard to believe the race won't tighten over time. The next poll to come from northeast Pennsylvania will likely show a closer race.