Gallup: Voters Split On Obama Re-election
By Kyle Trygstad
A new Gallup survey finds voters mostly split over whether President Obama deserves re-election in 2012, just as they have been for the last several months.
The poll, conducted of registered voters from June 11-13, found that 46 percent think he deserves re-election. That includes 79 percent of Democrats, 43 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans. Of the 51 percent who do not think he deserves to be re-elected, 18 percent were Democrats, 53 percent independents and 91 percent Republicans.
The results were nearly identical in March, when 46 percent said he deserves re-election and 50 percent said he does not.
"Currently, Americans' views on whether Obama deserves re-election show it would be a close race if the election were held today," wrote Gallup's Frank Newport. "Still, a great deal can change in what is a political lifetime between now and November 2012, meaning that while of current interest, estimates of Obama's re-election chances at this point have little predictive validity."
Proof of that -- in an extreme form -- is in May 2002, when George W. Bush's approval rating was at 77 percent thanks to what Gallup calls the "rallying effect" after 9/11. At that time, 69 percent said George W. Bush deserved re-election. By October 2004, that number was down to 50 percent. He went on to win with 51 percent of the popular vote.