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Blog Home Page --> House -- New Hampshire -- 02

NH Sen Poll: Ayotte Holds Lead Over Hodes

A new University of New Hampshire WMUR Granite State poll shows that former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) maintains a lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in the battle for the state's open Senate seat.

General Election Matchup
Ayotte 40 (+1 from last poll, 7/2)
Hodes 33 (-2)
Undecided 25 (+1)

That last poll was taken just before Ayotte resigned and announced her Senate candidacy. It hasn't been the easiest road for her since then, but she still appears to be the strongest Republican candidate against Hodes. The caveat is that only 14 percent of voters have definitely decided on who they'll vote for in one year, or are leaning toward someone.

Hodes 37 -- Lamontagne 28 -- Und 33
Hodes 37 -- Mahoney 28 -- Und 33

Favorable Rating
Hodes 30 / 26
Ayotte 37 / 8
Lamontagne 11 / 7
Mahoney 5 / 3

Gregg 56 / 23
Shaheen 51 / 36

After the jump, favorable ratings for the candidates for New Hampshire's Congressional races.

Continue reading "NH Sen Poll: Ayotte Holds Lead Over Hodes" »

NH-02: "Inspired" By Obama, Kuster Enters Race

Ann McLane Kuster, a New Hampshire attorney and early supporter of Barack Obama, announced today that she intends to run for the 2nd district seat being vacated by Rep. Paul Hodes (D).

Born into a political family, Kuster co-chaired New Hampshire Women for Obama and spent countless hours traveling the state on his behalf. In an interview this morning, she said that advocacy for the president spurred her to seek the seat.

"There's no question that I was inspired by Barack Obama to take this step into politics myself," said Kuster, of Hopkinton. "I've always been a community activist and a political activist. Both Barack and Michelle's grace and courage gave me the confidence to step up to run."

Announcing her candidacy today in a video to supporters, she said the formal campaign kick off will come this fall; the Democratic primary is in September 2010. But Kuster said she's already been actively courting constituencies and voters throughout the district in "more or less a Hillary Clinton listening tour." She also has met several times with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY's List. She's focusing now on raising enough money to run a competitive campaign, with the goal of $1 million for the primary.

Continue reading "NH-02: "Inspired" By Obama, Kuster Enters Race" »

NH: Shaheen, Shea-Porter Lead

Like Colorado, the New Hampshire Senate race tightened this summer before breaking open for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. A Boston Globe poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire surveyed 725 likely voters 10/18-22 for a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. Senator John Sununu and Shaheen were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Shaheen....49 / 81 / 10 / 45 (+1 from last, 9/08)
Sununu.....36 / 7 / 76 / 27 (-8)

Sununu's precipitous drop in the polls might be explained by his vote in favor of the Senate economic bailout plan, the same reason many believe Chambliss is now in trouble in Georgia. Sununu's New Hampshire colleague, Senator Judd Gregg, was Senate Republicans' lead negotiator on the bill.

The poll also tested Rep. Carol Shea-Porter against GOP ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley in the state's Manchester-based First District (358 LVs, +/- 5.2%) and Rep. Paul Hodes versus GOP radio host Jennifer Horn in the Nashua- and Concord-based Second District (349 LVs, +/- 5.2%).

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Shea-Porter....44 / 77 / 10 / 35 (+2 from last, 9/08)
Bradley........39 / 10 / 76 / 30 (-6)

Hodes..........51 / 80 / 12 / 43 (+13)
Horn...........25 / 7 / 57 / 12 (-1)

The September poll in Hodes' district looks like an anomaly in which pollsters didn't push leaners very hard. In the First District, the NRCC still sees Shea-Porter as a top target.

NH 01, 02: Dems Lead

Two freshman Democrats lead their races for re-election, according to a new independent poll. The Research 2000 poll conducted for the Concord Monitor surveyed 300 likely voters in both New Hampshire's First and Second Districts between 10/17-19 for margins of error of +/- 5.7%. In the First District, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter was tested against GOP ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley. The Second District matchup pitted Rep. Paul Hodes against radio host Jennifer Horn.

General Election Matchups
Shea-Porter.........48 (+4 from last, 9/24)
Bradley.............43 (no change)

Hodes...............49 (+2)
Horn................35 (+1)

Hodes looks largely safe, but don't count out Bradley. Other public polls have shown him close to or leading Shea-Porter.

NH 02: Hodes (D) +4

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter faces a difficult fight for re-election, but few consider fellow Granite State Rep. Paul Hodes in any real danger. A new poll for his GOP opponent calls that assumption into question. The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC and radio host Jennifer Horn, surveyed 300 likely voters between 9/16-17 for a margin of error of +/- 5.7%. Hodes and Horn were tested.

General Election Matchup
Hodes..........43
Horn...........39

Hodes' 36% favorable rating to 27% unfavorable rating is weak for an incumbent. But public polls conducted before the state's September 9 primary showed Hodes with a much bigger lead. We anxiously await the next survey from the University of New Hampshire to see if Hodes should really be worried.

New NH Polls

An independent poll, taken by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, tested 475 likely general election voters between 7/11-20 for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Of those, 235 lived in Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's First District, for a margin of error of +/- 6.4%, and 240 lived in Rep. Paul Hodes' Second District, for a margin of error of +/- 6.3%.

In the Senate race, incumbent Republican John Sununu and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen were tested, while Shea-Porter was matched against ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley and former state Cabinet secretary John Stephens. Hodes was tested against State Senator Bob Clegg and radio host Jennifer Horn.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / CD1 / CD2)
Shaheen..........46 / 84 / 11 / 42 / 56 / 35 / 45 / 48 (-6 from last, 4/08)
Sununu............42 / 9 / 82 / 26 / 53 / 32 / 47 / 37 (+2)

Bradley............46 / 8 / 84 / 40 / 56 / 36 (+1)
Shea-Porter.....40 / 80 / 6 / 26 / 34 / 46 (+1)

Shea-Porter.....42 / 79 / 10 / 25 / 36 / 48 (-1)
Stephen...........36 / 3 / 71 / 30 / 48 / 24 (+1)

Hodes..............43 / 69 / 15 / 40 / 37 / 47 (-9)
Horn.................23 / 3 / 48 / 11 / 29 / 19 (-2)

Hodes..............44 / 75 / 13 / 36 / 34 / 52 (-7)
Clegg...............25 / 4 / 50 / 17 / 32 / 19 (+1)