Topics
Administration
Congress
Democrats
Elections
Ethics
Governor -- Alabama
Governor -- Alaska
Governor -- Arizona
Governor -- California
Governor -- Colorado
Governor -- Connecticut
Governor -- Delaware
Governor -- Florida
Governor -- Georgia
Governor -- Hawaii
Governor -- Illinois
Governor -- Indiana
Governor -- Iowa
Governor -- Kentucky
Governor -- Louisiana
Governor -- Maryland
Governor -- Massachusetts
Governor -- Michigan
Governor -- Minnesota
Governor -- Missouri
Governor -- Montana
Governor -- Nevada
Governor -- New Hampshire
Governor -- New Jersey
Governor -- New Mexico
Governor -- New York
Governor -- North Carolina
Governor -- North Dakota
Governor -- Ohio
Governor -- Oregon
Governor -- Pennsylvania
Governor -- Rhode Island
Governor -- South Carolina
Governor -- Texas
Governor -- Utah
Governor -- Vermont
Governor -- Virginia
Governor -- Washington
Governor -- Wyoming
Governors
Health Care
House
House -- Alabama -- 02
House -- Alabama -- 03
House -- Alabama -- 05
House -- Alaska
House -- Arizona -- 01
House -- Arizona -- 03
House -- Arizona -- 05
House -- Arizona -- 08
House -- Arkansas -- 01
House -- Arkansas -- 02
House -- California -- 04
House -- California -- 12
House -- California -- 26
House -- California -- 32
House -- California -- 50
House -- Colorado -- 02
House -- Colorado -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 05
House -- Florida -- 06
House -- Florida -- 08
House -- Florida -- 13
House -- Florida -- 15
House -- Florida -- 16
House -- Florida -- 18
House -- Florida -- 19
House -- Florida -- 21
House -- Florida -- 24
House -- Florida -- 25
House -- Georgia -- 05
House -- Georgia -- 10
House -- Georgia -- 12
House -- Idaho -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 03
House -- Illinois -- 05
House -- Illinois -- 06
House -- Illinois -- 10
House -- Illinois -- 11
House -- Illinois -- 14
House -- Illinois -- 18
House -- Indiana -- 03
House -- Indiana -- 07
House -- Indiana -- 09
House -- Iowa -- 03
House -- Iowa -- 04
House -- Kansas -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 03
House -- Louisiana -- 01
House -- Louisiana -- 02
House -- Louisiana -- 04
House -- Louisiana -- 06
House -- Maine -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 04
House -- Massachusetts -- 05
House -- Michigan -- 01
House -- Michigan -- 07
House -- Michigan -- 09
House -- Michigan -- 13
House -- Minnesota -- 01
House -- Minnesota -- 03
House -- Minnesota -- 06
House -- Mississippi -- 01
House -- Mississippi -- 03
House -- Missouri -- 09
House -- Nevada -- 02
House -- Nevada -- 03
House -- New Hampshire -- 01
House -- New Hampshire -- 02
House -- New Jersey -- 03
House -- New Jersey -- 05
House -- New Jersey -- 07
House -- New Mexico -- 01
House -- New Mexico -- 02
House -- New York -- 13
House -- New York -- 15
House -- New York -- 20
House -- New York -- 21
House -- New York -- 23
House -- New York -- 24
House -- New York -- 25
House -- New York -- 26
House -- New York -- 29
House -- North Carolina -- 03
House -- North Carolina -- 08
House -- North Carolina -- 10
House -- North Dakota
House -- Ohio -- 01
House -- Ohio -- 02
House -- Ohio -- 05
House -- Ohio -- 07
House -- Ohio -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 15
House -- Ohio -- 16
House -- Oklahoma -- 05
House -- Oregon -- 05
House -- Pennsylvania -- 03
House -- Pennsylvania -- 04
House -- Pennsylvania -- 06
House -- Pennsylvania -- 10
House -- Pennsylvania -- 11
House -- Pennsylvania -- 12
House -- Pennsylvania -- 15
House -- South Carolina -- 01
House -- South Carolina -- 02
House -- South Carolina -- 05
House -- South Dakota
House -- Tennessee -- 07
House -- Tennessee -- 08
House -- Tennessee -- 09
House -- Texas -- 07
House -- Texas -- 10
House -- Texas -- 14
House -- Texas -- 22
House -- Utah -- 03
House -- Virginia -- 01
House -- Virginia -- 05
House -- Virginia -- 09
House -- Virginia -- 11
House -- Washington -- 08
House -- West Virginia -- 02
House -- Wisconsin -- 08
House -- Wyoming
Inauguration 2009
International
Issues
Judiciary
Local Elections
Media
Miscellaneous
Morning Thoughts
Politics Weekly
Polls
Rankings
Republicans
Senate
Senate -- Alaska
Senate -- Arizona
Senate -- Arkansas
Senate -- California
Senate -- Colorado
Senate -- Connecticut
Senate -- Delaware
Senate -- Florida
Senate -- Georgia
Senate -- Idaho
Senate -- Illinois
Senate -- Indiana
Senate -- Iowa
Senate -- Kansas
Senate -- Kentucky
Senate -- Louisiana
Senate -- Maine
Senate -- Massachusetts
Senate -- Minnesota
Senate -- Mississippi
Senate -- Missouri
Senate -- Montana
Senate -- Nebraska
Senate -- Nevada
Senate -- New Hampshire
Senate -- New Jersey
Senate -- New Mexico
Senate -- New York
Senate -- North Carolina
Senate -- North Dakota
Senate -- Ohio
Senate -- Oklahoma
Senate -- Oregon
Senate -- Pennsylvania
Senate -- South Carolina
Senate -- South Dakota
Senate -- Tennessee
Senate -- Texas
Senate -- Utah
Senate -- Virginia
Senate -- Wisconsin
Senate -- Wyoming
Sports
Supreme Court
WH 08
WH 08 -- Democrats
WH 08 -- Republicans
WH 12
WH 12 -- Republicans
White House

RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

 

Blog Home Page --> House -- New Hampshire -- 01

NH Sen Poll: Ayotte Holds Lead Over Hodes

A new University of New Hampshire WMUR Granite State poll shows that former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) maintains a lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in the battle for the state's open Senate seat.

General Election Matchup
Ayotte 40 (+1 from last poll, 7/2)
Hodes 33 (-2)
Undecided 25 (+1)

That last poll was taken just before Ayotte resigned and announced her Senate candidacy. It hasn't been the easiest road for her since then, but she still appears to be the strongest Republican candidate against Hodes. The caveat is that only 14 percent of voters have definitely decided on who they'll vote for in one year, or are leaning toward someone.

Hodes 37 -- Lamontagne 28 -- Und 33
Hodes 37 -- Mahoney 28 -- Und 33

Favorable Rating
Hodes 30 / 26
Ayotte 37 / 8
Lamontagne 11 / 7
Mahoney 5 / 3

Gregg 56 / 23
Shaheen 51 / 36

After the jump, favorable ratings for the candidates for New Hampshire's Congressional races.

Continue reading "NH Sen Poll: Ayotte Holds Lead Over Hodes" »

NH-01: Guinta Says Congress Out Of Touch With NH Values

Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) made it official today, announcing that he's running for Congress to bring "New Hampshire values" to Washington, DC.

"In new Hampshire we have a sense of frugality. We have a sense of pulling up our own bootstraps. We have a sense of trying to figure out the way together to get through tough times. That is in direct contrast to what's going on in Congress, and how our Congressman is voting," Guinta said on a conference call this morning.

He called the stimulus bill "wasteful," and said it "doesn't provide the long-term economic viability that our country demands." He also slammed the Employee Free Choice Act as "blatantly against" the Granite State's "Live Free Or Die" credo. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), the first district incumbent, is a co-sponsor of the EFCA and voted for the stimulus bill, though Guinta didn't mention her by name.

"The problem with Washington is that our representation is only looking as far as the next election. The policies that they are implementing today are only short-term risks that do not address long-term problems, not offer long-term solutions," he said.

Guinta, the mayor of the state's largest city, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for several statewide offices, but said he's running for Congress because that's where "my heart is." He chose to announce his candidacy now to be honest with his city, and because he said he wants strong candidates run to replace him this fall. He said he'll keep his focus on the city this year, with a full campaign schedule picking up next year when his term is over.

Other Republicans are still considering the race. Guinta said he's not focused on a primary yet, saying he brings "the right credentials" to the race and has a record that "speaks for itself."

Continue reading "NH-01: Guinta Says Congress Out Of Touch With NH Values" »

In NH-01, Manchester Mayor May Hold Key For GOP

NH Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) has been underestimated before, much to the chagrin of former GOP incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley, whom she upset in 2006 and edged out again last year. But Republicans say her last two general election wins were helped by strong Democratic waves nationally, a factor that may not be in play next year.

If so, the GOP's hopes for a Northeast comeback may end up riding on Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who filed paperwork last week to form an exploratory committee for a Congressional run. One of the state's few prominent Republican officeholders after the retiring Sen. Judd Gregg, Guinta has been mentioned frequently as a potential gubernatorial candidate. But with popular Democratic Gov. John Lynch likely to run again, the National Republican Congressional Committee also identified him as a top recruit for a House race.

What makes Guinta's candidacy so enticing is his home field advantage in the Queen City. Though Manchester is a majority Democratic city, he won a second term in 2007 by nearly eight points, and raised record funds in the process. Manchester also played a key role in Shea-Porter's last win. She carried every ward last year and took the city by 5,000 votes -- accounting for 40% of her reelection margin in the 1st Congressional district. No wonder Republicans hope Guinta's special appeal for the city's voters could be the X-factor in next year's House race.

A Guinta campaign adviser said that the greater Manchester area accounts for 37% of the vote in the House district and Guinta's popularity and standing in the city will "be a huge advantage." A new University of New Hampshire survey released this week presented some additional warning signs for the incumbent. Shea-Porter's approval rating remains under 40% in the district, while her disapproval climbed to 35% -- her worst since taking office. Her favorability rating in the Manchester area is actually the lowest of any of the regions surveyed -- just 29%. Compare that to Guinta, who has a 52% favorable rating there.

Shea-Porter's problem, Republicans say, is a voting record more liberal than her constituency. And even Democrats gripe about her lackluster fundraising. Unlike last year, Shea-Porter is "actually going to have to run on her own," the Guinta adviser said, noting the boost provided by Barack Obama's strong performance in New Hampshire in 2008.

Guinta plans officially to announce his candidacy next week.

NH: Shaheen, Shea-Porter Lead

Like Colorado, the New Hampshire Senate race tightened this summer before breaking open for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. A Boston Globe poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire surveyed 725 likely voters 10/18-22 for a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. Senator John Sununu and Shaheen were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Shaheen....49 / 81 / 10 / 45 (+1 from last, 9/08)
Sununu.....36 / 7 / 76 / 27 (-8)

Sununu's precipitous drop in the polls might be explained by his vote in favor of the Senate economic bailout plan, the same reason many believe Chambliss is now in trouble in Georgia. Sununu's New Hampshire colleague, Senator Judd Gregg, was Senate Republicans' lead negotiator on the bill.

The poll also tested Rep. Carol Shea-Porter against GOP ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley in the state's Manchester-based First District (358 LVs, +/- 5.2%) and Rep. Paul Hodes versus GOP radio host Jennifer Horn in the Nashua- and Concord-based Second District (349 LVs, +/- 5.2%).

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Shea-Porter....44 / 77 / 10 / 35 (+2 from last, 9/08)
Bradley........39 / 10 / 76 / 30 (-6)

Hodes..........51 / 80 / 12 / 43 (+13)
Horn...........25 / 7 / 57 / 12 (-1)

The September poll in Hodes' district looks like an anomaly in which pollsters didn't push leaners very hard. In the First District, the NRCC still sees Shea-Porter as a top target.

NH 01, 02: Dems Lead

Two freshman Democrats lead their races for re-election, according to a new independent poll. The Research 2000 poll conducted for the Concord Monitor surveyed 300 likely voters in both New Hampshire's First and Second Districts between 10/17-19 for margins of error of +/- 5.7%. In the First District, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter was tested against GOP ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley. The Second District matchup pitted Rep. Paul Hodes against radio host Jennifer Horn.

General Election Matchups
Shea-Porter.........48 (+4 from last, 9/24)
Bradley.............43 (no change)

Hodes...............49 (+2)
Horn................35 (+1)

Hodes looks largely safe, but don't count out Bradley. Other public polls have shown him close to or leading Shea-Porter.

New NH Polls

An independent poll, taken by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, tested 475 likely general election voters between 7/11-20 for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Of those, 235 lived in Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's First District, for a margin of error of +/- 6.4%, and 240 lived in Rep. Paul Hodes' Second District, for a margin of error of +/- 6.3%.

In the Senate race, incumbent Republican John Sununu and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen were tested, while Shea-Porter was matched against ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley and former state Cabinet secretary John Stephens. Hodes was tested against State Senator Bob Clegg and radio host Jennifer Horn.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / CD1 / CD2)
Shaheen..........46 / 84 / 11 / 42 / 56 / 35 / 45 / 48 (-6 from last, 4/08)
Sununu............42 / 9 / 82 / 26 / 53 / 32 / 47 / 37 (+2)

Bradley............46 / 8 / 84 / 40 / 56 / 36 (+1)
Shea-Porter.....40 / 80 / 6 / 26 / 34 / 46 (+1)

Shea-Porter.....42 / 79 / 10 / 25 / 36 / 48 (-1)
Stephen...........36 / 3 / 71 / 30 / 48 / 24 (+1)

Hodes..............43 / 69 / 15 / 40 / 37 / 47 (-9)
Horn.................23 / 3 / 48 / 11 / 29 / 19 (-2)

Hodes..............44 / 75 / 13 / 36 / 34 / 52 (-7)
Clegg...............25 / 4 / 50 / 17 / 32 / 19 (+1)

Dems' Mixed Results In NH

Few states saw a greater shift toward Democrats in 2006 than New Hampshire. Along with both chambers of the legislature, the party out of power also took back both House seats, beating incumbent Republicans Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley in the process. This year, while Democrats are committed to keeping those two seats, a new poll shows Republicans might have a good shot at displacing at least one of those freshmen.

Freshman Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes' Second District encompasses the state's northern reaches and western border with Vermont, as well as virtually all of Merrimack County, including the state capitol in Concord, and the southern city of Nashua. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's First District is smaller geographically, stretching from Manchester to the Seacoast city of Portsmouth and north through Carroll County and Laconia.

The Granite State Poll, taken by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between 4/25-30, tested both of the state's districts. In the First District, where the sample size of 249 led to a margin of error of +/- 6%, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter was surveyed alongside ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley and former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Bradley 45 / 13 / 80 / 41 / 51 / 40
Shea-Porter 39 / 78 / 8 / 21 / 39 / 39

Shea-Porter 43 / 80 / 10 / 32 / 46 / 40
Stephen 35 / 5 / 69 / 22 / 40 / 30

Shea-Porter has so far refused help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, preferring to run her campaign as she did in 2006, when the national party saw her as a sure loser and focused instead on the Second District. And Bradley remains a popular figure -- 43% view him favorably to just 23% who see him unfavorably. That's much better than Shea-Porter's ratio of 39%-28% favorable to unfavorable.

Bradley and Stephen faced off in the 2002 Republican primary, which Bradley narrowly won. This year, they will meet in the September primary, and if the race turns ugly, Shea-Porter could be the beneficiary. But if Bradley emerges as a relatively unscathed winner, he could reverse what may have been a fluke to win back his seat in Congress.

The neighboring Second District poll surveyed 251 residents for the same 6% margin of error. Along with freshman Rep. Paul Hodes, State Senator Bob Clegg and radio talk show host Jennifer Horn were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hodes 51 / 84 / 9 / 42 / 46 / 55
Clegg 24 / 2 / 58 / 18 / 27 / 22

Hodes 52 / 82 / 21 / 33 / 45 / 58
Horn 25 / 4 / 49 / 29 / 29 / 21

Hodes, who beat out moderate Rep. Charlie Bass to win the more Democratic of the two seats, looks like a safer bet for re-election than Shea-Porter, not only because of his superior fundraising -- at nearly $1.3 million through March, he's outraised Shea-Porter ($662,000 raised) and Bradley ($566,000 raised) combined -- but also thanks to his lack of serious opposition. Neither Clegg nor Horn are competitive financially.