Topics
Administration
Congress
Democrats
Elections
Ethics
Governor -- Alabama
Governor -- Alaska
Governor -- Arizona
Governor -- California
Governor -- Colorado
Governor -- Connecticut
Governor -- Delaware
Governor -- Florida
Governor -- Georgia
Governor -- Hawaii
Governor -- Illinois
Governor -- Indiana
Governor -- Iowa
Governor -- Kentucky
Governor -- Louisiana
Governor -- Maryland
Governor -- Massachusetts
Governor -- Michigan
Governor -- Minnesota
Governor -- Missouri
Governor -- Montana
Governor -- Nevada
Governor -- New Hampshire
Governor -- New Jersey
Governor -- New Mexico
Governor -- New York
Governor -- North Carolina
Governor -- North Dakota
Governor -- Ohio
Governor -- Oregon
Governor -- Pennsylvania
Governor -- Rhode Island
Governor -- South Carolina
Governor -- Texas
Governor -- Utah
Governor -- Vermont
Governor -- Virginia
Governor -- Washington
Governor -- Wyoming
Governors
Health Care
House
House -- Alabama -- 02
House -- Alabama -- 03
House -- Alabama -- 05
House -- Alaska
House -- Arizona -- 01
House -- Arizona -- 03
House -- Arizona -- 05
House -- Arizona -- 08
House -- Arkansas -- 01
House -- Arkansas -- 02
House -- California -- 04
House -- California -- 12
House -- California -- 26
House -- California -- 32
House -- California -- 50
House -- Colorado -- 02
House -- Colorado -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 05
House -- Florida -- 06
House -- Florida -- 08
House -- Florida -- 13
House -- Florida -- 15
House -- Florida -- 16
House -- Florida -- 18
House -- Florida -- 19
House -- Florida -- 21
House -- Florida -- 24
House -- Florida -- 25
House -- Georgia -- 05
House -- Georgia -- 10
House -- Georgia -- 12
House -- Idaho -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 03
House -- Illinois -- 05
House -- Illinois -- 06
House -- Illinois -- 10
House -- Illinois -- 11
House -- Illinois -- 14
House -- Illinois -- 18
House -- Indiana -- 03
House -- Indiana -- 07
House -- Indiana -- 09
House -- Iowa -- 03
House -- Iowa -- 04
House -- Kansas -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 03
House -- Louisiana -- 01
House -- Louisiana -- 02
House -- Louisiana -- 04
House -- Louisiana -- 06
House -- Maine -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 04
House -- Massachusetts -- 05
House -- Michigan -- 01
House -- Michigan -- 07
House -- Michigan -- 09
House -- Michigan -- 13
House -- Minnesota -- 01
House -- Minnesota -- 03
House -- Minnesota -- 06
House -- Mississippi -- 01
House -- Mississippi -- 03
House -- Missouri -- 09
House -- Nevada -- 02
House -- Nevada -- 03
House -- New Hampshire -- 01
House -- New Hampshire -- 02
House -- New Jersey -- 03
House -- New Jersey -- 05
House -- New Jersey -- 07
House -- New Mexico -- 01
House -- New Mexico -- 02
House -- New York -- 13
House -- New York -- 15
House -- New York -- 20
House -- New York -- 21
House -- New York -- 23
House -- New York -- 24
House -- New York -- 25
House -- New York -- 26
House -- New York -- 29
House -- North Carolina -- 03
House -- North Carolina -- 08
House -- North Carolina -- 10
House -- North Dakota
House -- Ohio -- 01
House -- Ohio -- 02
House -- Ohio -- 05
House -- Ohio -- 07
House -- Ohio -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 15
House -- Ohio -- 16
House -- Oklahoma -- 05
House -- Oregon -- 05
House -- Pennsylvania -- 03
House -- Pennsylvania -- 04
House -- Pennsylvania -- 06
House -- Pennsylvania -- 10
House -- Pennsylvania -- 11
House -- Pennsylvania -- 12
House -- Pennsylvania -- 15
House -- South Carolina -- 01
House -- South Carolina -- 02
House -- South Carolina -- 05
House -- South Dakota
House -- Tennessee -- 07
House -- Tennessee -- 08
House -- Tennessee -- 09
House -- Texas -- 07
House -- Texas -- 10
House -- Texas -- 14
House -- Texas -- 22
House -- Utah -- 03
House -- Virginia -- 01
House -- Virginia -- 05
House -- Virginia -- 09
House -- Virginia -- 11
House -- Washington -- 08
House -- West Virginia -- 02
House -- Wisconsin -- 08
House -- Wyoming
Inauguration 2009
International
Issues
Judiciary
Local Elections
Media
Miscellaneous
Morning Thoughts
Politics Weekly
Polls
Rankings
Republicans
Senate
Senate -- Alaska
Senate -- Arizona
Senate -- Arkansas
Senate -- California
Senate -- Colorado
Senate -- Connecticut
Senate -- Delaware
Senate -- Florida
Senate -- Georgia
Senate -- Idaho
Senate -- Illinois
Senate -- Indiana
Senate -- Iowa
Senate -- Kansas
Senate -- Kentucky
Senate -- Louisiana
Senate -- Maine
Senate -- Massachusetts
Senate -- Minnesota
Senate -- Mississippi
Senate -- Missouri
Senate -- Montana
Senate -- Nebraska
Senate -- Nevada
Senate -- New Hampshire
Senate -- New Jersey
Senate -- New Mexico
Senate -- New York
Senate -- North Carolina
Senate -- North Dakota
Senate -- Ohio
Senate -- Oklahoma
Senate -- Oregon
Senate -- Pennsylvania
Senate -- South Carolina
Senate -- South Dakota
Senate -- Tennessee
Senate -- Texas
Senate -- Utah
Senate -- Virginia
Senate -- Wisconsin
Senate -- Wyoming
Sports
Supreme Court
WH 08
WH 08 -- Democrats
WH 08 -- Republicans
WH 12
WH 12 -- Republicans
White House

RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

 

Blog Home Page --> House -- Kansas -- 02

Jenkins-Boyda Match Set

In perhaps the upset of the night, Kansas State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins overcame a huge cash and name recognition disadvantage to defeat ex-Rep. Jim Ryun for the GOP nomination to take on Democratic freshman Nancy Boyda. Jenkins, who ran as a moderate, won by just over 1,000 votes, a 51%-49% margin.

Defeating Ryun is something of a feat in Kansas, where the one-time track star was viewed as a local hero. That Boyda beat him at all in 2006 was a surprise -- she scored a four-point margin of victory in 2006 after losing by fifteen points in 2004. That Jenkins held Ryun off this time is a big surprise.

Ryun had backing from the Club for Growth and conservative groups, while Jenkins took a much more moderate tack. That moderate approach is usually not the way to win a Republican primary. But despite being outspent by a five-to-one margin through the July 16 pre-primary filing deadline, Jenkins denied Ryun the chance to try for his old seat.

Perhaps, though, it is not surprising that Kansas Republicans would choose a more moderate candidate. A serious schism has existed between conservatives and moderates over the past decade, handing Democrats the ability to pick off seats here and there. Governor Kathleen Sebelius won both her elections over Republican rivals by exploiting those divisions and picking moderate Republicans as running mates, sending conservatives into apoplectic fits.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has weighed in with a big ad reservation, but Boyda has asked them to pull those ads to assert her independence from the party. Boyda has a record close to the middle of the House, but in a Republican district based around the state capital in Topeka, in a presidential year the freshman Democrat is going to have real trouble holding on to her seat, and national Republicans see it as one of their top targets.

Boyda In The Crosshairs

Few Democrats are in greater jeopardy than freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda, whose 2006 win over Republican Jim Ryun was one of the biggest upsets of the year. Now, Ryun is back for another try at his old seat, but he faces State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins in tomorrow's Republican primary, meaning Boyda will begin her general election run against an opponent whose bank account has been depleted.

Boyda, who had lost to Ryun by a fifteen-point margin in 2004, stunned the incumbent with a four-point win in a district that gave President Bush 59% of the vote in his final run. Largely ignored by national Democrats, Boyda rejected offers to become a member of the party's Frontline program for endangered incumbents and called on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to pull the $1.2 million earmarked for advertising on her behalf.

Boyda is well-funded for now, having pulled in almost $1.24 million and retaining $891,000 through the July 16 pre-primary filing deadline. Ryun has actually outraised Boyda, pulling in $1.68 million so far, but his battle with Jenkins has cost him $1.57 million. He held $222,000 in reserve for the final three weeks. Jenkins, on the other hand, has spent slowly and still had $489,000 stored in reserve.

Ryun, running as a conservative, provides a contrast with both Boyda and Jenkins, who has spent her time running as a moderate. Conservative groups including the Club for Growth have put their money behind Ryun, and most agree he retains the strong favorite in tomorrow's vote.

Boyda has kept a moderate record in her first term in Congress, with a voting record very close to the middle of the House and far more conservative than fellow Kansas Democrat Dennis Moore. But Boyda's Second District, which includes Topeka and the eastern fifth of the state not counting Kansas City, is more conservative than Moore's Third District, which includes the state's largest city.

President Bush has already shown up in Kansas, holding a fundraiser for Moore's opponent, and his presence could help replenish Ryun's or Jenkins' depleted warchests after the primary. As Republicans search the country for ways to stanch losses elsewhere, Boyda could find herself a top target in a district that will likely overwhelmingly go to John McCain in November.

Boyda Up Big

Though she is widely believed to be one of the most vulnerable first-term Democrats in the country, Kansas Rep. Nancy Boyda may be in better shape than initially thought, a new survey conducted for national Democrats shows. Leaked to Politics Nation and other political news outlets, the poll's authenticity was verified by a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee source.

The survey, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research on behalf of the DCCC, surveyed 403 voters between 5/12-15 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Boyda, ex-Rep. Jim Ryun and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, both Republican candidates, were surveyed.

General Election Matchups (With leaners)
Boyda.........54
Ryun...........37

Boyda.........57
Jenkins........27

Despite some missteps in her first term, Boyda is hugely popular, if the poll is to be believed. 68% of respondents in her district said she was doing an excellent or good job, while just 21% had a negative impression of her job performance. 54% said they would definitely or probably vote to re-elect Boyda, while just 35% said they would give someone else a shot.

Republicans face an August 5 primary between Ryun, who Boyda beat in 2006, and Jenkins, widely seen as the more moderate of the two. The poll also tested the primary between the two Republicans, though without disclosing the size of the subsample. Ryun, a former track star famous in his state, led by a wide 49%-35% margin.

The late primary, just three months before Election Day, will force Ryun and Jenkins to spend much of their money on each other rather than on Boyda, who already has a financial advantage. Through the end of March, Boyda had $814,000 in the bank, while Jenkins held $486,000 in reserve and Ryun kept $459,000 around. Ryun had outraised both his opponents by wide margins, but much of that money went to paying off debt from last cycle.

In short, Boyda should be in serious jeopardy in her eastern Kansas district, which includes Topeka and Manhattan. The district gave President Bush a twenty-point win in 2004, the same year Ryun beat Boyda by a fifteen-point margin. And she's not on the DCCC's Frontline list of endangered members, after making clear she would not participate in the project to appear more independent to her district. But if the latest poll is accurate, Boyda may have struck a cord that would keep her safe in her first bid for re-election.