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NPR Poll Spells Trouble For Dems In November

By Kyle Trygstad

A new poll of the battleground congressional districts finds reason for deep concern among Democrats. The poll, conducted for NPR by Democratic polling firm GQR and Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, tested the 60 most competitive Democratic districts and shows an increasingly difficult environment for candidates of the majority party.

"The results are a wake-up call for Democrats whose losses in the House could well exceed 30 seats," GQR notes in its findings.

In the Democratic districts, several findings were most disconcerting for the party: just 34% said they would vote to re-elect their representative, whom the questioner named; in a separate question, 56% said they will not vote to re-elect their representative because new people are needed to fix Washington; and when both the Democratic and Republican candidates were named, 47% said they'd vote for the Republican and 42% chose the Democrat.

Also tested were the 10 most competitive Republican districts, where 53% say they'll vote for the GOP candidate and 37% for the Democrat.

Messaging will also be a problem for Democrats. As GQR notes, "We tested Democratic and Republican arguments on the economy, health care, financial reform and the big picture for the 2010 election. The results consistently favored the Republicans and closely resembled the vote breakdown. Democrats are hurt by a combined lack of enthusiasm and an anti-incumbent tone."

Graphs and a full list of the districts included in the survey can be found here. Full results are here. NPR's write-up of the poll is here and quick break-down is here.