The Week Ahead: November Races Take Shape
Tuesday begins a potentially pivotal 35-day stretch of election contests that will set the stage for this November's midterm madness. By June 8, 25 states will have held primary and/or special elections, starting with tomorrow's party contests in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio.
The featured contests this week are Democratic primaries in the races for Republican-held Senate seats in Ohio and North Carolina. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher seems to have opened up a late lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in the Buckeye State; the winner faces Republican Rob Portman, a former Congressman and director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Bush. In North Carolina, no clear favorite has emerged among the field of candidates looking to challenge first-term Sen. Richard Burr (R). If no candidate gets the required 40 percent of the vote, a real possibility, a June 22 runoff will be held.
In the Hoosier State, the attention is on the Republican primary for Senate. Former Sen. Dan Coats, whose retirement led to the election of retiring incumbent Evan Bayh (D), is the presumed frontrunner against former Rep. John Hostettler and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman. Rep. Brad Ellsworth is the Democratic candidate; no primary is taking place because Bayh's decision not to seek re-election came just days before the filing deadline.
These Senate contests in a way represent the midterm Congressional landscape in a microscosm. Races that had very early on been seen as pickup opportunities for Democrats now are at best toss-up races. And Republicans will be looking at the message sent in the Indiana primary as a signal of how other, more divisive races could alter their chances in a favorable environment.
The White House: Two unfolding stories -- the environmental disaster of an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the unrealized disaster of a Times Square car bombing -- will be the major storylines of the week for the Obama administration. President Obama spent Sunday getting a firsthand look at the oil spill's impact on the Gulf Coast states.
But the economy, too, is in the spotlight this week. Friday brings the release of monthly unemployment data, and with it the monthly spin war over whether the Recovery Act and other administration actions have helped put the nation on the road to a revived economy. Obama was to travel to New Jersey for an economy-focused event on Wednesday, but that stop was canceled. He does address the Business Council in Washington on Tuesday.
Also on the docket this week: a meeting of the national security team on Afghanistan and Pakistan on Thursday.
Capitol Hill: Last week featured some great theater in Senate committee hearing rooms, as Goldman Sachs execs were grilled for their role in the economic collapse of 2008. No such hearings are on the schedule so far this week, but Wall Street Reform will play a central role in Senate floor debate, which could go on for the next two weeks before a final vote. Democratic leaders also introduced late last week a framework for immigration reform, with a climate change bill also in the offing. Friday will feature discussion about the April jobs report released that morning.
Politics: We already noted the looming primaries this week. Also on Tuesday is the filing deadline for candidates running in major party contests in Massachusetts. The gubernatorial race will be one of the marquee races in the country; we're also eyeing a potentially competitive race for Congress in the sixth district as well as the open 10th district seat.
Also this week, Utah Republicans hold a party convention that may determine the fate of incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R). He needs to finish among the top two in a vote of state party delegates in order to qualify for the June 22 primary ballot. But if another candidate secures 60 percent of the convention vote, no primary is necessary.
On the 2012 front this week, Tim Pawlenty heads to South Carolina to campaign for Congressional candidate Mick Mulvaney and raise money for the state GOP. On Friday it was announced that the Minnesota governor has inked a book deal.
A note about international politics as well: Thursday is the Parliamentary election in the United Kingdom. The Labour Party's 13-year hold of the government is at risk, but the once-favored Tories may not retake the government because of the unexpectedly strong performance of the Liberal Democrats. Party leader Nick Clegg used the first-ever televised debates to boost his party from afterthought to legitimate spoiler. A hung parliament is the expected outcome at this point, which means the Lib Dems may call the shots depending on what coalition it would seek to create.
**Poll Watch:
Obama Job Performance: Approve 47.7 / Disapprove 45.9 (+1.8)
Congress Job Performance: Approve 22.5 / Disapprove 70.5 (-48.0)
Generic Ballot Test: Republicans +1.1
**In Case You Missed It:: It was the so-called "Nerd Prom" weekend in Washington. President Obama's comedy act got more positive reviews than headline entertainer Jay Leno. You can see both acts here.
-- Mike Memoli & Kyle Trygstad