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« Vulnerable Freshman Dems On Strong Financial Footing | Blog Home Page | The Week Ahead: Will D.C. Get Voting Rights? »

Week In Midterms: Winning The Money War

The quarterly reporting period dominates the headlines this week in midterm races. Our regularly-updated chart has the latest figures.

SENATE:

WEEK IN POLLS:
* Arkansas: R2K/Daily Kos: Primary & General; Benenson -- Primary (for Lincoln): Lincoln (D) +18; Zata3 (D) -- Primary: Lincoln (D) +7
* California: Rasmussen: Various matchups
* Connecticut: Rasmussen: Blumenthal (D) +14 vs. Simmons, +20 vs. McMahon
* Florida: Quinnipiac: Primary & General matchups, 3-way hypothetical; Rasmussen -- R Primary: Rubio +29
* Kentucky: SurveyUSA -- Primaries: Paul (R) +15, Mongiardo (D) +3
* Louisiana: Rasmussen: Vitter (R) +16
* Nevada: LVRJ/Mason Dixon -- Full ballot test: Lowden (R) +10; LVRJ/Mason Dixon -- Partial ballot test: Lowden (R) +8; Tarkanian/Reid tied
*North Carolina: PPP (D) -- General: Various Matchups; PPP (D) -- Primary: Marshall (D) +6
* New York: Quinnipiac: Primary & general matchups
* Pennsylvania: Susquehannah: Toomey (R) +10 vs. Specter; Muhlenberg: Toomey (R) +7 vs. Specter, + 11 vs. Sestak; Rasmussen -- General: Toomey (R) +10 vs. Specter, +11 vs. Sestak; Rasmussen -- D Primary: Specter +2
* Utah: Rasmussen -- Primary: Bennett (R) +23

FLORIDA: The hottest topic in campaign politics is whether Gov. Charlie Crist drops out of the Republican primary to run as an independent. Down 23 points in the polls, the tipping point came this week when Crist vetoed a GOP-backed education bill. NBC News reported most of the chatter within his campaign is centered on an indie bid or pulling out altogether to run against Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in 2012. Oh, and Rubio raised $3.6 million in the 1stQ, more than any other Senate candidate in the country.

GEORGIA: Democrats appear to have scored a legitimate challenger to Sen. Johnny Isakson in the form of state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports: "We're told that the courting of Thurmond by Democrats in Washington stepped up with Isakson's recent back-to-back hospitalizations."

KENTUCKY: While the Republicans continue to have one of the nastier primaries in the country, they're fundraising is far outpacing the two Democrats in the race. Attorney General Jack Conway (D) raised just $215k, while Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D) raised $312,000. Rand Paul (R), who was just endorsed by outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning, brought in $614k, and Secretary of State Trey Grayson raised $734,000.

NEVADA: Sen. Harry Reid got what he asked for: Mason-Dixon did a full ballot test (including "None of these," which Nevada ballots include) and found him garnering just 37% and trailing Sue Lowden (R) by 10 points.

WISCONSIN: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) announced Thursday he would not challenge Sen. Russ Feingold, despite leading him in recent polls. Thompson's announcement makes the state a less likely GOP pickup and came on the heels of former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) making it official that he would indeed not challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

GOVERNOR:

WEEK IN POLLS:
* Colorado: Rasmussen: McInnis (R) +6
* New Hampshire: Rasmussen: Various matchups
* Nevada: LVRJ/Mason Dixon: Primary & General matchups
* New York: Quinnipiac: Primary & general matchups
* Pennsylvania: Susquehannah -- D Primary: Onorato +19; Muhlenberg: Various matchups

CALIFORNIA: Jerry Brown returns to the spotlight this weekend, with an anticipated speech at the California Democratic Party convention. Republicans Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman continue to duel on the airwaves. An interesting tactic by the Whitman campaign -- releasing video footage of its events to local TV affiliates for on-air use.

FLORIDA: Bill McCollum unveiled his economic platform on Tax Day, which included a cut in the state corporate tax rate. Meanwhile, he got a major challenge on his hands in the Republican primary, from anti-health care advocate Rick Scott. The fallout of Crist's SB6 veto played out in the race. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times weighs in on the FL GOP scandal's impact on McCollum.

MARYLAND: RCP interviewed former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R), talking about his race against Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), RNC chair Michael Steele, and his possible next running mate. Ehrlich says he'd join the nationwide health care lawsuit.

MASSACHUSETTS: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) kicked off his re-election campaign last weekend. This speech sounds curiously like it could be an Obama re-election speech. Republican candidate Charlie Baker was a no-show at the Sarah Palin/tea party event in Boston.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gov. John Lynch (D) made it official: he'll seek an unprecedented fourth term. This as a conservative anti-gay marriage group attacks his record in a TV ad. Democrats want to get the ad off the air.

NEW YORK: The New York Times looks behind the curtain at Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's (D) quiet press campaign. Republicans gather this weekend to hear from Steve Levy and Rick Lazio. The Post measures up the GOP candidates.

THE REST: Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) posted strong fundraising numbers. Illinois Republican nominee Bill Brady didn't release his tax returns. Neither would Colorado's Scott McInnis (R). DGA chair Markell makes hay of RGA chair Barbour's comments on slavery. Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) reveled in the tea party. Artur Davis (D) rebuffs the support of black groups in Alabama.

HANDICAPPER WATCH
Cook Political Report:
* FL-02 from Likely D to Lean D
* FL-25 from Solid R to Likely R
* NJ-12 from Solid D to Likely D
* OH-02 from Likely R to Solid R
* PA-06 from Lean R to Likely R
* SC-01 from Likely R to Solid R
* SC-02 from Likely R to Solid R
* TX-23 from Likely D to Lean D
* HI Gov from Toss Up to Lean D

Rothenberg Political Report:
* Moved in favor of GOP: AR-02, AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-44, CO-04, DE-AL, FL-22, FL-24, HI-01, IA-03, IL-11, IL-14, IN-02, IN-08, MA-10, MD-01, MN-03, MN-06, NY-24, NV-03, NJ-03, NM-01, NM-02, NY-29, ND-AL, OH-01, OH-02, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-03, PA-04, PA-06, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, SC-05, TN-06, VA-02, VA-09, WI-07, WV-01
* Moved in favor of Dems: CA-47, FL-25, GA-08, NY-23.

RCP PROJECTIONS
Senate: GOP +8
Governor: GOP +4
House Map

--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad