The Week Ahead: Welcome To Election Year
We love Washington and all, but -- no matter your political stripe -- one almost feels bad for President Obama's return home. It was nearly 80 degrees when he stepped on Air Force One in Honolulu Sunday night and likely will be in the high 20s when Marine One touches down on the White House lawn this morning. But all vacations must come to an end, so check out what to watch in RCP's Week Ahead:
The White House: President Obama and the first family was due to officially return "to the Mainland," as Hawaiians put it, at 11:30 am when Air Force One lands at Andrews Air Force Base. The White House has not put out a full schedule for the week, but one issue is sure to have found its way on to the president's crowded desk in the Oval Office: terrorism. Obama's counterterrorism czar was on the Sunday shows talking about the new threats from al Qaida, including those that led to the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Yemen.
The Capitol: The House and Senate remain on break this week, while Democratic leadership aides continue backroom negotiations on a compromise health care reform bill. As Reuters reports, the difficult task is highlighted in the two chambers' differences "over the use of federal funds for abortion, new taxes to pay for the plans, a government-run insurance option and the level of subsidies and penalties for the uninsured." Politico notes that, as it did during the August recess, the GOP has been trying to win the media war over the winter break as well.
Politics: Welcome to midterm election year 2010, when history and polling now stand on the Republican Party's side. AP's Liz Sidoti broke down the landscape in a great piece published over the weekend:
"But they face an incumbent-hostile electorate worried about a 10 percent unemployment rate, weary of wars and angry at politicians of all stripes. Many independents who backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 have turned away. Republicans, meanwhile, are energized and united in opposing Obama's policies."
The first election in 2010 happens in just over two weeks, when Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley compete for the Senate seat in Massachusetts once held by Ted Kennedy (and now being kept warm by Paul Kirk). There are two debates this week, with another scheduled for a week from today at the Kennedy Institute.
The first regularly-scheduled primary is February 2, when the gubernatorial and Senate nominations will be decided in Illinois. For a full rundown of the primary calendar for the new year, check back to this post.
Look for Democrats this week to focus on the growing number of open seats that Republicans will need to defend next year. There are now 14 Republican congressmen not seeking re-election -- Rep. Henry Brown (R-S.C.) is expected to announce his retirement this afternoon, and Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.) announced his exit last week.
Poll Watch:
Obama Job Performance: Approve 49.8 / Disapprove 44.6 (+5.2)
Congress Job Performance: Approve 27.4 / Disapprove 65.8 (-38.4)
Generic Ballot Test: Republicans +1.7
In Case You Missed It: While most have focused on Democratic incumbents not seeking re-election next year, there is a growing number of Democratic recruits that have opted against running. This past week, freshman Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Kans.) lost an opponent in state Sen. Laura Kelly (D), the fifth Dem challenger to drop out in recent weeks.
--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli