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KY Sen Poll: With Bunning Out, GOP Could Hold Seat

Both Republican candidates have an early advantage over the two Democrats in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a new Public Policy Polling (D) survey (1,199 RVs, 12/18-21, MoE +/- 2.8%).

General Election Matchups
Grayson 40 -- Conway 33 -- Und 27
Grayson 44 -- Mongiardo 35 -- Und 21

Paul 42 -- Conway 36 -- Und 22
Paul 42 -- Mongiardo 36 -- Und 22

A previous PPP survey found physician Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) leading their respective primaries.

Sen. Jim Bunning's (R) decision to retire, under heavy pressure from fellow Republicans, proves especially helpful to the party, as his job approval rating is just 29 percent. Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo were both considered solid Democratic candidates, but the current political environment seems to especially troublesome for the party in Kentucky.

President Obama's job approval rating is just 35 percent, while 59 percent disapprove. Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear also has net-negative approval rating, with 36 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Mongiardo was elected jointly with Beshear in 2007, and that unpopularity seems to spill over as his favorable rating is the worst in the field.

Favorable Ratings
Conway 19 / 18
Mongiardo 25 / 37
Grayson 19 / 17
Paul 26 / 23

PPP:

Kentucky independents are overwhelmingly leaning toward the GOP, giving Grayson and Paul leads ranging from 25 to 34 points over the Democratic contenders. Republicans are also more unified, with their candidates taking anywhere from 69-75% of their party's votes in contrast to the Democrats who snag just 54-61% support from within their party.