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NJ Gov Poll: Corzine Takes 5-Point Lead

"You could see it coming," Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll says of the polling outfit's new survey on the New Jersey gubernatorial race today. Gov. Jon Corzine has taken a 5-point lead with one week to go, after trailing Christie in previous surveys all year.

General Election Matchup
Corzine 43 (+3 from last poll, 10/7-12)
Christie 38 (-3)
Daggett 13 (-1)
Undecided 5 (unch)

Corzine now leads the RCP Average of New Jersey by 0.6 percent.

Though the governor has been narrowing the gap for some time, the pollster warns it's still a fluid race. Independent candidate Chris Daggett has "changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap," and "a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day," Carroll says.

Among those Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they could change their mind, compared to 19 percent of Corzine backers and 12 percent of Christie's. Daggett's supporters lean Christie on the second-choice question, 43-27 percent, while 18 percent say they wouldn't vote at all.

Christie now actually has a 15-point lead among independent voters, up from a 9-point lead earlier this month. But he has slipped somewhat among Republicans while Corzine has secured his standing among Democrats, perhaps attributable to visits last week by Vice President Biden, former President Clinton and President Obama.

Favorable Ratings
Christie 37 / 42
Corzine 41 / 52
Daggett 21 / 16

Corzine's job approval rating is 39 percent, while 54 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, more voters say Corzine is honest and trustworthy than Christie, with Christie's numbers on that question dropping 5 points in two weeks.

The survey of 1,267 likely voters was conducted October 20-26, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.