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« Strategy Memo: A Night In Nashville | Blog Home Page | NM 01: Heinrich (D) +2 »

FL 18, 21, 25: GOP Leads

Time to debunk the myth of the Cuban voter flocking to the Democratic Party. The GOP still has a solid grasp on Cuban-Americans, but the rise to power of non-Cuban Hispanics could dramatically alter the South Florida political landscape in coming years. New independent polls of three majority-Hispanic districts in South Florida show that tipping point isn't quite here yet.

The polls, conducted by the McDonald Group for Telemundo 51 in Miami, surveyed 300 voters per district between 9/27-10/1 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. In the state's Eighteenth District, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Democratic businesswoman Annette Taddeo were tested. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and the former Democratic mayor of Hialeah, Raul Martinez, were tested in the Twenty-First District. And Twenty-Fifth District Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart was tested against former Miami-Dade County Democratic chairman Joe Garcia.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Cub / His / Oth)
Eighteenth District
Ros-Lehtinen......48
Taddeo...............35

Twenty-First District
L. Diaz-Balart.....48 / 8 / 89 / 32 / 61 / 37 / 39
Martinez.............43 / 83 / 4 / 51 / 30 / 53 / 47

Twenty-Fifth District
M. Diaz-Balart....43 / 7 / 82 / 38 / 59 / 36 / 37
Garcia................41 / 81 / 3 / 44 / 30 / 49 / 41

(Note: "Cub" is Cuban voters. "His" is non-Cuban Hispanic voters. "Oth" is all other races. Full results for the Eighteenth District will be released on tonight's newscast)

Cuban voters still overwhelmingly favor Republicans, but other Hispanic voters are helping Democrats make up the difference.