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« Strategy Memo: Garrison's Not Happy | Blog Home Page | The Fighter Takes The Stage »

NC: Hagan +5

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole trails her opponent in a new Democracy Corps poll, highlighting the Republican's vulnerability in November. Still, Dole's campaign will point out that the survey was conducted by a Democratic firm. The poll also found the state's governor's race is a tie, giving Republicans hope of picking up at least one executive mansion in November.

The survey, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Washington-based firm, polled 852 likely voters between 8/20-26 for a margin of error of +/- 3.4% (The sample's partisan breakdown: 40% Democratic, 33% Republican, 27% independent and others). Dole and State Senator Kay Hagan were tested, along with Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, respectively.

General Election Matchup (With leaners)
Hagan...........50
Dole............45

Perdue..........46
McCrory.........46

McCain..........47
Obama...........44

Generic Dem.....49
Generic GOP.....43

The numbers in the governor's race show what most other surveys agree upon -- a tight race in which the candidates are within a point or two of each other. The presidential matchup also tracks closely with most polls; the latest RCP North Carolina Average shows McCain leading by 4.2 points.

The Senate race has been less stable, with some polls showing Dole with a big lead, particularly after she ran an initial series of advertisements, and others with Hagan running close if not even.

Dole has plenty of opportunities to make the race as close as the governor's race. After respondents were read an informed ballot highlighting each candidate's positives and negatives, the two tied at 47% each.

Still, Dole's job approval ratings are 38% approve to 39% disapprove, meaning the Republican will have to use her sizable war chest to bolster he own image. Hagan will continue to try and tie Dole to the unpopular President Bush, whose approval ratings are a dismal 38% approve to 57% disapprove.