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« Strategy Memo: Formula 504 | Blog Home Page | FL 16: Mahoney (D) +7 »

MS 01: Childers (D) +11

Travis Childers has been a member of Congress for three months, but he's already learned to consolidate his electorate, a new poll for the Mississippi Democrat's campaign shows.

The survey, conducted by Anzalone Liszt for Childers, polled 502 likely voters between 9/7-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Childers and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis were tested.

General Election Matchup
Childers......51
Davis.........39

Childers, whose base in Mississippi's First District is in the Tupelo area, defeated Davis, mayor of a suburban Memphis town, by 8 points in the June special election. Republicans have been pessimistic about Davis' chances in a repeat bid, given both his lackluster performance this Summer and the fact that his base is in what they characterize as the wrong part of the district.

Childers is also popular among his new constituents. 55% of district voters see him favorably, while just 24% see him unfavorably. Davis' own ratings are 40% favorable to 32% unfavorable.

Davis has sought to tie Childers to Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and other more liberal national Democrats, but Republicans have not been able to make that charge stick to any of a number of candidates, especially those running in the South, this year. Davis has the advantage of running in a district John McCain is likely to win big, as will Senator Roger Wicker (who vacated the seat to serve in the Senate), but if he can't make the argument tying Childers to the party at large, the results from June may repeat themselves.