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« MO Picks Hulshof, Nixon | Blog Home Page | Strategy Memo: Obama's Bad Week »

WA: Gregoire Up Big?

Could a race decided by only 130 votes in 2004 be split wide open this year? That's what Washington Governor Christine Gregoire hopes, but a new poll suggesting as much is ripe for Republican complaints.

The Elway Poll, conducted by Elway Research among 405 registered voters between 7/27-31 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%, tested Gregoire and her 2004 opponent, former State Senator Dino Rossi.

General Election Matchup
(All / Ind)
Gregoire.......52 / 43 (+5 from last, 6/22)
Rossi............36 / 37 (-3)

Obama..........47
McCain..........35

Republicans have always charged that pollster Stuart Elway skews his sample towards Democrats, and this is the first poll of the race in a while that has Gregoire ahead outside the margin of error. But Barack Obama's twelve-point lead is close to the latest RCP Washington Average, which has the Illinois Democrat ahead of John McCain by 10.6 points.

Still, most polls show the race extraordinarily close, as it was four years ago. A Strategic Vision poll released last week showed a two-point Gregoire lead, and a Moore Information poll taken for Rossi earlier in July showed the race tied.