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« ID: Risch +10 | Blog Home Page | NC: Dole +8, Obama Close »

Stevens Takes A Hit

Looking for a metric on how much the indictment of Ted Stevens has affected the Alaska Senate race? Alaska pollster Ivan Moore has an answer, thanks to a well-timed poll and an equally fast follow-up. The answer, as one might imagine, is that Stevens now looks even more damaged than he was just a week ago.

The polls, conducted by Ivan Moore Research, were conducted 7/18-22 among 504 likely voters for a margin of error +/- 4.4% and 7/30-31, after the indictment, among 413 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. Stevens was tested against former State Rep. Dave Cuddy in the Republican primary and against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the general.

Primary Election Matchup
(7/31 / 7/22)
Stevens........59 / 70
Cuddy...........19 / 21

General Election Matchup
(7/31 / 7/22)
Begich..........56 / 51
Stevens........35 / 43

(7/22 sample only)
McCain..........47
Obama..........44

Stevens' approval rating is down eleven points in the same period; just 44% see him positively, down from 55% two weeks before. His negative ratings are up from 38% to 48% between the two polls.

Stevens, eight points down just two weeks ago, trails by twenty-one now. Still, Cuddy, who ran against Stevens in the 1996 primary, has yet to benefit from Stevens' slide. With just three weeks to go until the August 26 primary, Cuddy or businessman Vic Vickers, who is up with his own advertisements, have a long way to go if they are to prevent Democrats from stealing the seat.

As Begich pulls farther ahead, an emerging question then becomes whether Alaska voters are willing to vote for the Democrat atop the ticket. With Obama trailing by just three points, well within the margin of error, his investment in the state looks more prescient at the moment.