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« NV: Heller +5 | Blog Home Page | Strategy Memo: Denver Divide »

NC: Dole +3

Senator Elizabeth Dole is in a tight race for re-election, a new survey shows, as new advertisements hitting the first-term Republican and praising her Democratic rival collaborate to reduce Dole's once-sizeable lead.

The poll, conducted by TelOpinion Research for the North Carolina-based Civitas Institute, surveyed 600 likely voters between 8/14-17 for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Dole, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chris Cole were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole........44 / 15 / 80 / 47 / 43 / 44 (-3 from last, 7/16)
Hagan.....41 / 67 / 10 / 37 / 42 / 41 (+3)
Cole..........4 / 3 / 3 / 8 / 6 / 3 (+2)

Dole has a big lead among voters in both Western and Eastern Carolina, regions where she leads by nearly twenty points, while Hagan keeps the race close with a massive 61%-28% lead in the Research Triangle. Hagan has not made serious inroads among independent voters in the last few months, but she's consolidated her Democratic base enough to make the race close.

The race has narrowed thanks in part to advertisements run by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has slammed Dole as an ineffective Senator who votes with President Bush too often, and thanks to Hagan's own first ads of the general election, which hit the air two days before the poll went in the field. Earlier Civitas polls had shown significant movement after Dole started running her first ads, back in June.