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« NJ: All Tied Up | Blog Home Page | Strategy Memo: Back On Top(ic) »

NC 08: Hayes +10

Republican Rep. Robin Hayes won his re-election bid in 2006 by just over 300 votes, but this time he could be in better shape against the same Democratic opponent, a new poll conducted for his campaign shows. With Barack Obama seriously competing in the Tar Heel State, though, the district that gave President Bush a nine-point margin in 2004 looks like it will be another close race.

The poll, conducted for Hayes' campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely voters between 8/4-5 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Hayes and teacher and businessman Larry Kissell, the Democratic nominee, were tested.

General Election Matchup
Hayes..........50
Kissell..........40

McCain.........47
Obama.........42

Hayes retains a good favorable rating, with 51% of the district seeing him in a positive light and 20% viewing him negatively, while Kissell has a ways to go to build his name recognition; just 14% have a favorable impression of the Democrat while 11% see him unfavorably.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is expected to deliver aid to Kissell this year, having reserved a whopping $1.6 million in ad time already. In 2006, the committee didn't spend significantly in the district, an error the party regretted when the race ended in such a narrow loss for Kissell.